Forum Archive Index - May 2002

["Brian & Fiona Brakenridge" <pohuenui.island@xtra.co.nz>]

OK Phaedrus, I'll have a crack so long as I get some feedback.

 

I've been concentrating on trendlines to date and have spent little time fully getting to grips with other indicators such as RSI and Simple Moving Average though I think I have a rudimentary understanding.

 

Essentially the stock has been in a long term down trend since a peak of $4.78 in Fen 01. I'd be interested to see the longer term down trend included in the chart to see if todays price crossed this line. Short term downtrend was broken at around $2.79.   

 

Todays price has it crossing the SMA and nudging the medium downtrend. Tomorrow will be interesting. The cautious amongst us I guess are waiting for a little more confirmation, maybe another higher low. The medium traders would have bought at the short term trendline break which combined with the RSI indicator.

 

Stop loss? Well this discussion I'm finding intriguing and suspect it has a huge bearing on the success of any philosophy. Your recent post http://www.sharechat.co.nz/archives/current/msg00216.shtml was most enlightening Phaedrus and I encourage other learners to have another read. 

 

I'm not sure where your short term stop would be, maybe around 2.74?? but if we bought today or as soon as the price moves through the downtrend is there reasonable support indicated at $2.78. If you have a longer term perspective is this too tight? Would it be more prudent to set your stop at a loint where the price broke through a longer term uptend which began last November?

 

Interesting conclusion to date is that I haven't found any chicken entrails yet. So far it all seems to make sense. I hope I'm making sense!

 

Cheers

Brian