Forum Archive Index - May 2002

["Ben Dutton" <bendutton@sharechat.co.nz>]

Snoopy,

This doesn't really address your post, but as an aside you and others who
follow the aviation industry may be interested in the following report the
McKinsey Quarterly did - called "Rethinking the aviation industry" it's
pretty interesting:

http://www.mckinseyquarterly.com/article_abstract.asp?ar=1190&L2=23&L3=79&sr
id=27

You may have to register to get access to the article.

Best Regards

Ben Dutton



----- Original Message -----
From: <tennyson@caverock.net.nz>
To: <sharechat@sharechat.co.nz>
Sent: Tuesday, May 14, 2002 4:10 AM
Subject: [sharechat] AIR riding on hot air?


> Positively the worst prediction made on sharechat this year must have
> been mine that AIR would be trading at only 15c by the end of it.
> In fairness, there are still seven months to go, so my prediction may
> yet come true.  But given Air New Zealand shares are gliding along at
> 55c or so, this doesn't seem likely.
>
> 55c is the equivalent of $3.05 prior to the restructuring.   This for
> a company that is now crippled with debt and barely breaking even.
> Even if the restructuring goes according to plan, don't even mention
> the word 'dividend' for at least five years.   55c is 49% higher than
> the highest 'fair value' (37c) attributable to the company in the
> Grant Samuel independent adviser's report issued 30th November 2001.
>
> The word is that the reason the price is flying is that index fund
> managers are striving to buy up the shares, to make up the required
> weightings in their index tracking funds.  But buying something
> because it is there is rarely a wise strategy for investment.
>
> My AIR investment strategy was to hold onto my small residual parcel
> so I got all the documentation sent to me and dive into the rumoured
> up coming rights issue hoping to pick up a good sized holding at 10c
> a share or so.   But with the share price rising to 55c and even
> higher in the recent past, the case for sale became compelling - so
> I'm now completely out.  I think my chances of picking up shares at
> 10c each are pretty close to zero now.
>
> I notice there are a lot of AIR punters out there in the Stock Guru
> competition, and most of you are at the top of the list.  Obviously I
> was wrong in my assessment of AIR at the start of the year, so
> perhaps I am wrong again.  Any of you like to comment?
>
> SNOOPY
>
>
> ---------------------------------
> Message sent by Snoopy
> e-mail  tennyson@caverock.net.nz
> on Pegasus Mail version 2.55
> ----------------------------------
> "You can tell me I'm wrong twice,
> but that still only makes me wrong once."
>
> --------------------------------------------------------------------------
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