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From: | "tennyson@caverock.net.nz" <tennyson@caverock.net.nz> |
Date: | Mon, 13 May 2002 18:10:37 +0000 |
Positively the worst prediction made on sharechat this year must have been mine that AIR would be trading at only 15c by the end of it. In fairness, there are still seven months to go, so my prediction may yet come true. But given Air New Zealand shares are gliding along at 55c or so, this doesn't seem likely. 55c is the equivalent of $3.05 prior to the restructuring. This for a company that is now crippled with debt and barely breaking even. Even if the restructuring goes according to plan, don't even mention the word 'dividend' for at least five years. 55c is 49% higher than the highest 'fair value' (37c) attributable to the company in the Grant Samuel independent adviser's report issued 30th November 2001. The word is that the reason the price is flying is that index fund managers are striving to buy up the shares, to make up the required weightings in their index tracking funds. But buying something because it is there is rarely a wise strategy for investment. My AIR investment strategy was to hold onto my small residual parcel so I got all the documentation sent to me and dive into the rumoured up coming rights issue hoping to pick up a good sized holding at 10c a share or so. But with the share price rising to 55c and even higher in the recent past, the case for sale became compelling - so I'm now completely out. I think my chances of picking up shares at 10c each are pretty close to zero now. I notice there are a lot of AIR punters out there in the Stock Guru competition, and most of you are at the top of the list. Obviously I was wrong in my assessment of AIR at the start of the year, so perhaps I am wrong again. Any of you like to comment? SNOOPY --------------------------------- Message sent by Snoopy e-mail tennyson@caverock.net.nz on Pegasus Mail version 2.55 ---------------------------------- "You can tell me I'm wrong twice, but that still only makes me wrong once." ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- To remove yourself from this list, please use the form at http://www.sharechat.co.nz/chat/forum/
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