Forum Archive Index - April 2002

["G Stolwyk" <stolwyk@wave.co.nz>]

Disclaimer: Outcomes may be different compared with presented results. Readers are not asked to buy, hold or sell PTD or any other company. To do so will be entirely at their own risk. Data will be subject to delivery of Patents by the USPTO.

 

Please note: Reference is made to Ozestock posts. 

(A). Current data from post 11041, item 2:

Resulting revenues and approx. royalties are for:
2.1 Remicade:
Year to Sept: 2003--2004--2005--2006
Revenue ($US)-1178--1507--1929--2284
Royalties(2%):23.56-30.14-38.60-45.60

2.2: D2E7:
Year to Sept.30--2003--2004--2005--2006
Revenue($US mill)--200--600---800---900
2.1% royalties----4.2--12.6--16.8--18.9

 

3. Combined royalties:
Remicade+D2e7----27.76-42.74-55.40-64.50
In $A-(0.52)---------53.3---82.1-106.5-124.0

Notes. Royalty rates are not made public but arising from indicaters, the 2% and 2.1% have been used. Take note that this rate is bound to be higher for groups (1.2) and (1.3): hence the potential PTD income could be much higher!

(B). Degree of adjustment.
Post 14235 mentions that the Remicade revenue will rise from $US 1178 mill. to $US 1500 mill. in the year to Sept. 30, 2003.

Assisted by drug differentiation - more diseases are treatable- there will be rampant increases in revenue. We need to project that to include the year to Sept.30, 2006.

I believe, Bonstonker and Pharmaboy will derive a NPV of the PTD share using increments over time.

Our up to 2006 adjustment will cover the more "immediate" years and I shall use different numbers. Share prices can be sensitive to this "immediate" data.

The greatest "problem" is caused by D2E7. The revenue for 2006 will be boosted by a significant amount.
All up, I expect the results in item 3 above ( combined royalties) to rise by between 30% and 40% throughout till Sept. 2006.
.
That means initial rises of 30% but approaching 40% in 2006.

I am posting this to inform readers and the market. In due time, the final detailed projections will be presented.

Gerry