Forum Archive Index - March 2002

[Phaedrus <Phaedrus@techemail.com>]

Enrique,
        There are many ways to make money in the sharemarket. One is to buy 
stocks that have good fundamentals. Another is to buy stocks that are in a 
long-term uptrend, and hold them for as long as the overall trend is up - 
perhaps for many years. Another method is to attempt to trade the medium-term 
trends that make up the long-term trend. This is what I do. The objective is to 
avoid holding the stock if it is in a secondary correction, perhaps with the 
view of buying back in when the uptrend resumes. Some people trade the 
short-term trends that make up the medium-term trend. Some people day-trade. 
Each of these approaches has its own strengths, weaknesses and characteristics, 
and thus will appeal to different people. For any given stock, and indeed for 
any given individual, one of these methods will prove the most profitable.
 Any medium-term sell point, in a stock that is in a long-term uptrend will 
ALWAYS be surpassed, sooner or later. This does NOT make the signal "wrong". 
GPG is not the only instance of this happening with charts I have posted. For 
example in the ELD chart of 14/11/01 I posted a medium-term Sell signal at 21 
cents - the latest price is 29 cents. The simple trendline based system giving 
that exit signal had given an entry at 14 cents. That was a 60% profit in 8 
weeks. I regard that as a very successful trade - not a failure because as it 
happened I could have made more by holding on. Overall, I am better off 
following these signals. You can always buy back in. I have in fact done just 
that with AIA WHS GPG and ELD. You have to be true to your system. Look at how 
well the same system got you out of stocks like THL VTL WAM CEN NCH TEL etc. 
All of these stocks were sold at a profit, and all are now below the posted 
sell point, by a very substantial amount in some cases.  
 I have attached an updated chart of GPG for you. GPG is still in an uptrend, 
and we now have a new confirmed trendline. I can assure you that I will be 
selling when this is broken. If the price then continues to climb further, I 
will still regard this as a good trade. I do not expect to buy at the bottom. I 
do not expect to sell at the top. I do not expect every trade to be profitable. 
For my psychological health, I have found it best to focus on what I make in a 
trade, rather than what I could have made. With hindsight, any trade could be 
more profitable. 

                    Phaedrus.
 


_____________________________________________________________
Are you a Techie? Get Your Free Tech Email Address Now! Visit 
http://www.TechEmail.com

_____________________________________________________________
Run a small business? Then you need professional email like you@yourbiz.com 
from Everyone.net  http://www.everyone.net?tag

----------------------------------------------------------------------------
To remove yourself from this list, please use the form at
http://www.sharechat.co.nz/chat/forum/