Forum Archive Index - March 2002

["Rockbottom" <rockbottom@ihug.co.nz>]

Dick your anticipated cumulative 10% increase in dividends from AIA for the
next 30 years may be a tad optimistic. If the income was generated as in
2001 in 30 years it would mean 133,633,296 passenger movements pa, 2,345,644
aircraft movements pa and 2,965,669 tonnes of freight.

In other words there would be 6426 plane movements every day. How would
Auck's infrastructure cope? Why would 366,118 people want to move into or
out  of the city each day? How many security guards would be necessary, bus
drivers, meter persons?

Will there be enough fuel for these planes?

Good luck

Rockbottom





----- Original Message -----
From: "Dick O'Connor" <callme_nz@hotmail.com>
To: <sharechat@sharechat.co.nz>
Sent: Monday, March 04, 2002 3:03 PM
Subject: [sharechat] some help please hugh


>
> Hugh, the other day you referred to the AIA result which was very good.
>
> On Friday one could have bought say 500 shares at $4.14 each, including
> brokerage. The company is currently paying a dividend of about 12c a year,
> giving a net yield of a tick under 2.9%.
>
> Now, lets look what could happen to the dividend in future years if we
> accepted that AIA could grow its dividend by say 10% a year.
>
> The 12c in 5 years would be 19c
>            10 yrs           31c
>            20 yrs           80c
>            30 yrs           209c
>
> We are told the two big enemies of long-term investing are tax and
> inflation. The dividend imputations here take care of the tax for most
> people. But we are told inflation has an even bigger effect even where tax
> has to be paid. How do you go about making a reasonable stab at what
damage
> inflation might do to the figures above for 10, or 20 ,or 30 years.
>
> I was finding it pretty slow going working it out year by year when it
> suddenly occurred to me we have the best economist right here on site. Is
> there a quick way of doing a calculation and how do you go about it? Regs
>
>
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