Forum Archive Index - February 2002

["Chris Castle" <c.castle@paradise.net.nz>]

Nick,

 

A few homilies from an old fa*t..............

 

There's a wealth of opportunity in the local market at the moment. There's a lot more to this market than majors like F & P, Baycorp & Tranz Rail and tiddlers like Strathmore. Similarly FFS and Telecom - yawn..............

 

Look closely at Northport, Moorings Systems, Restaurant Brands, Kirks (during the current issue), Michael Hill,  Southern Capital for starters.  And lots of others -  have a good look at them and you'll be surprised what their management is doing.

 

Examine other small/medium size stocks that look cheap.

 

Remember, small stocks grow faster and don't get the flu when Wall Street has a cold.

 

Recovery stocks also grow faster - look at dogs.

 

Look at what companies have said they will do - look at what they have actually achieved.

 

The market is full of cheap top quality stocks, they just haven't marketed themselves effectively yet. 

 

Avoid flavours of the month. Instead, look at stocks everyone hates - just see the percentage movements on ITC and BRY in the last 2 months.  

 

So, buy stocks that you like that that no-one else does.

 

Fear and greed drive markets a lot of the time. Logic overcomes both.

 

Ignore markets trends per se, look for anomalies within markets. Who cares about the "NZ" market?

 

This September lows nonsense won't affect a good stock for long. Anyway, its just as likely that tax linked selling will affect various markets in the March, June and December quarters as it usually does each year.. But who knows?

 

Assume that the market is right until you have established otherwise. As noted above, a universally held view is often 100% wrong.

 

End of sermon...........

 

Regards,

 

 

 

----- Original Message -----

From: nick

To: sharechat@sharechat.co.nz

Sent: Sunday, February 17, 2002 7:31 PM

Subject: [sharechat] Wheres the value?

       Looks very hard to find anything worth buying at the moment.

A year or two ago we had top quality stocks languishing at cheap prices,

ie Restaurant brands 1.00 , contact energy 2.50 auckland airport 2.50

Fletcher building 2.00, wrigtsons .45  Nufarm 3.50 the list goes on

     Now on the other hand its difficult to recommend anything with much confidence.

The global environment still looks very rocky, many predicting a forthcoming test of the sept lows

later this year (dow).

     New zealand prices no longer look cheap, warehouse and retail look fully priced for now,

the floundering stocks ie air NZ really do look dodgy while the rest have generally had a good run

since lows of sept it could well be that run is about to end.

     Im looking at F AND P healthcare, baycorp, trans rail at the moment, they may not be bargains yet but if the selling continues they could be the ones.  Its either that or go for the more risky smaller stocks like strathmore.

      All up im pretty well cashed up at the moment, GPG my only NZ stock,  looking at going into an asian fund (excluding japan) could be where the value is this year. Any comments?

 

 Nick