Forum Archive Index - February 2002

["Chris Morgan" <ica.sports@xtra.co.nz>]

Hugh
Thanks for your insightful reply, from canterbury are we?. My inquiry to
Phaedrus was in the nature of learning, or to put it in language you more
clearly  understand, I was increasing my  "fundamental" knowledge of the
methodologies used by sharetraders before eliminating any or all options
available to me.

I tend to support your basic premise but am inclined to Phaedrus's thinking
from his posting subsequent to yours in which he has written inter-alia as
follows  "In the long run, fundamentals are the more important. In the short
run, market sentiment is the more important". Technical analysis is the
study of market sentiment."
& later "Why not use fundamental analysis to select your stocks, and TA to
time your entry and exit? "
A couple of nuggets ( please excuse the gold analogy, but after last
weekends tidbits from our Australian cousin, Peter Jenkins, posted as
Desmond
McDonell, 3/2/02 ,  who proved that seagulls obviously dont always fly
upside down over that country, I felt that the gold analogy was
appropriate).  He  more  or
should I say less eloquently says what Phaedrus says above, that , "In the
long run, fundamentals are the more important. In the short run, market
sentiment is the more important", i.e this is possibly a way of getting out
before the mugs get in.

So I guess the guy who studies and applies "Market Sentiment" managed to
agree with  the basic philosophy in a calm, balanced, analytical way (almost
a fundamental approach) of a guy who studies "fundamental analysis" applying
balanced analytical thought who then  becomes full of "sentiment" at the
thought of a different opinion. !!!!!
                         Now I am confused :-(

Hugh, I would appreciate you clearing this matter up immediately,



Morgy



----- Original Message -----
From: "hugh webber" <hugh.webber@clear.net.nz>
To: <sharechat@sharechat.co.nz>
Sent: Tuesday, February 05, 2002 6:06 PM
Subject: Re: [sharechat] Thanks


> Its not "fear" except in the sense that the Consumers Institute "fears"
for the safety of
> consumers.
> I'd be delighted to hear that it was all good harmless fun like reading
your horoscope in the paper
> and laughing.
> One can only repeat once again that the really expert investors, and I
don't mean the amateurs that
> run insurance and superannuation & funds investment although even they
eschew "technical" analysis,
> but people like Warren Buffett (if TA people have heard of him), Benjamin
Graham et al, relate its
> a waste of time and quite often counterproductive.
> My own observation from Sharechat posts is that there is a very strong
inverse correlation between
> the absence of real news such as company reports, turning points in the
economy from fresh
> statistics; and the number of charting posts.
> i.e. its what people do when they're bored and waiting for something real
world to happen. Lets
> hope for some real news soon to avoid the deluge of rubbish.
>
> cheers,
> Hugh
>
> ----------
> > From: Chris Morgan <ica.sports@xtra.co.nz>
> > To: sharechat@sharechat.co.nz
> > Subject: [sharechat] Thanks
> > Date: Tuesday, 5 February 2002 17:15
> >
> >
> > Phaedrus, Thanks for your  reply to my  David Bowden questions a week or
so
> > ago, re safety In
> > the markets, the links were extremely useful & may have saved me some
> > serious dollars over a long period of time. I am in your debt.
> > I have been a fundamentals type of investor previously & am returning to
the
> > market after many years of absence. I am extremely taken by TA as a
concept
> > or added value technique.
> > While their seems to be some fear from the fundamentalists about your
black
> > art, I was wondering if you would kindly enlighten me with some
direction
> > (books, sites, software, etc) to develop my knowledge of this subject.
> >
> > P.S  Rather enjoyed the unmasking over the weekend, would it be correct
to
> > ask if that was the fundamentalist side coming out in you, i.e
Information
> > based on solid research on a target. Thanks for both the humour & the
info
> >
> > pps,  whats the "other channel"
> >
> > Regards
> >
> > Morgy
> >
> >
> >
> >
> > ----- Original Message -----
> > From: "Desmond McDonnell" <desmondo@labyrinth.net.au>
> > To: <sharechat@sharechat.co.nz>
> > Cc: <lionselection@lsg.com.au>
> > Sent: Sunday, February 03, 2002 12:17 PM
> > Subject: Re: [sharechat] Lion Selection/Helix/Robin Widdup
> >
> >
> > > Hey, this is rather an unfair sort of language, detracting if not
> > > calumniating. Have you been instructed on sins? If I were you, I would
> > > head off to church and start learning about it. Course there are
> > > churches and churches. For directions, write to Mrs Margaret McKenna,
> > > 15 Crecy Place, New Windsor.
> > >
> > > In any case I am quite sure Lion, Widdup and Were would be readily
> > > able to repudiate this strangely derogatory spin of yours. Seems to me
> > > Lion is pretty much on the right track.
> > >
> > > But please tell me, what NZ golds do you like? I get the impression
> > > there is none. Is gold mined in NZ? Or are you still into dot.coms
over
> > > there?
> > >
> > > You End-Zedders were the first into the New Year but still living in
the
> > > 1900s the last to wake to investment realities of millennium.
> > >
> > > Don't worry, I come from a country town in Victoria myself, Ballarat.
> > > They've got gold there, but have been frightened away from it by past
> > > greed, scandal, incompetence, and maybe worse.
> > >
> > > Such as demonstrated by a lunatic $100m decline that went about 100
> > > yards down and caved in, burying all the trusting shareholders, in one
> > > of the engineering scandals of all time.
> > >
> > > Regards
> > > Peter Jenkins
> > >
> > > You said:
> > >
> > > All the chats about LSG ... the golden rule of investment is know the
> > > management and in this case, the investment manager.  It is indeed Mr
> > > Robin Widdup, the J B Were's analyst for Helix.
> > >
> > > Helix is the share that went to dizzy heights 5 years ago on the back
> > > of wild analysis that the company had found a big hunk of gold ... the
> > > hunk of gold proved to be somebody's imagination!  Helix share price
> > > crashed to dirt and during that period, Lion Selection Group was
> > > formed.
> > >
> > > Hope those buying into LSG have better luck than the poor ole Helix
> > > investors!
> > >
> > >
> > >
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