Forum Archive Index - January 2002

["Richard Hooper" <hoop@ihug.co.nz>]

If you want to make money buy good stocks that are out of favour with
everyone. CAH was one stock in 2001, although I might say "good"in this case
might be flattering. Remember 2 years ago WRI nobody touched it... reason
....bad management. Amazing now it has good management ..still has the same
type of people running it. I bought CAH in bits last year,( $1.50-$1.60)
mentioned on sharechat that 2002 could the year of the tree...it seems that
it maybe 2003. With cyclic stocks its a BIG gamble picking upturns as they
happen rarely and quickly..with many false starts, but when it happens its
huge ,e.g WRI.
CAH is a much different fish now than it was 2-3 years ago, so one can't
refer to the past results and compare with the share price
then....because....of their recent acquistions,and over extending their
financial limits,the management(Bad???? If the company fails-yes,if the
company makes huge profits-no) has gambled their business...if there is a
double dip in the paper & pulp commodity price CAH could be fatally
wounded...if the cycle turns up ...they make a fortune and the management
are heroes not zeroes.
If the NZ Herald figures are right (which I doubt..one too many noughts in
the equation methinks), if the pulp & paper prices go up to the 1997 prices
CAH makes $3 billion more revenue. Remember the exchange rates were
different as our $ was alot higher then.  I am very sceptical about the $3B
but my 2001 homework did reveal that $0.5B profit (conservative?) at some
point in the near future can not be ruled out.........Hence the share price
increase ..as some investors( there is alot of them.. 6M shares crossed
today ) can see the huge potential at the moment. Next week they might not
see it the same way and prices drop back as it has done this last year or
so.  HOWEVER..........It should be on everyones WATCHLIST......If pulp
prices keep rising upwards off the bottom of this latest cycle...expect to
see some fireworks in CAH.
Every dog has its day
Hoop


----- Original Message -----
From: "Chris Watson" <Chris.Watson@computerland.co.nz>
To: <sharechat@sharechat.co.nz>
Sent: Wednesday, January 23, 2002 3:55 PM
Subject: RE: [sharechat] cah -- and what to buy?


> Medium term resistance at 1.90 (Apr, May, Jul 2001).  Performance over
next
> couple of days will reveal how well established this upward trend is.
> Currently 1m+ orders lined up 190 and below. Remember that it takes volume
> to turn around a trend.  Breakthru and support above 195 will be good news
> for this stock particularly if volumes continue to rise.
>
> CW
>
> -----Original Message-----
> From: SWLEE [mailto:SWLEE@xtra.co.nz]
> Sent: Wednesday, January 23, 2002 2:21 PM
> To: sharechat@sharechat.co.nz
> Subject: Re: [sharechat] cah -- and what to buy?
>
>
> Jefley,
> You are riding on a express gravy train, why hop off?.
>
> What don't you like about CAH latest  Q result? After 3 consecutive Q of
> reducing earnings, the latest Q result has reversed the tide.   Looking
> forward, thats is encouraging  performance by CAH, that is why the price
ahs
> move up nicely, driven by huge demand by institutional investors in big
> numbers, who are buying into its recovery potential for the coming
periods.
>
> From the T/A viewpoint, there is still plenty of steam left in CAH price
> movement, all technical indicators are pointing north, MACD, OBV, RSI and
> short and long term moving averages are looking good. First time in more
> than 2 years, CAH has breached the 200 Moving A.
>
> I wont want to leave the winning table just yet.
>
> Cheers
> Stephen
>
>
> ----- Original Message -----
> From: "Jefley Aitken" <jefley@xtra.co.nz>
> To: <sharechat@sharechat.co.nz>
> Sent: Wednesday, January 23, 2002 9:48 AM
> Subject: [sharechat] cah -- and what to buy?
>
>
> > good morning!
> >
> > whatever is happening to cah?  $1.91 at last look!  yesterday's news
just
> > didn't seem worth yesterday's 8 cent rise, and this morning's rise seems
> > beyond belief.  i've held this share for about four years, and yep, my
> > initial price was $1.91.  have long since learned to dislike and
distrust
> > it, and am very tempted to sell because i cant understand the rise --
and
> > don't trust it.
> > i haven't had great deal of success with the timing of sales lately, and
> > would appreciate some opinions: get out and be grateful, or, hold on a
> bit.
> >
> > which brings me to my last two not terribly well timed sales -- i have
> cash
> > looking for an investment.  i've been watching and watching wri, pgg,
wkl
> > and believe the sector still has mileage.  any thoughts on the best
> choice.
> >
> > i've also been following dpc and have developed a recent interest in
csg.
> >  if anyone has opinions on these shares, i'd like to hear.  then of
> course,
> > if someone would like to write about their favourite "buy-now" share,
that
>
> > would be deeply and truly wunnerful...
> > regards, jefley
> >
> >
>
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