Forum Archive Index - January 2002

["SWLEE" <SWLEE@xtra.co.nz>]

Peter,
 I remember our discussion. Since then, WHS has peaked @$6.85, a 10% gain
over the last 3 months.  CAH has peaked from $1.45 to $1.81 for the same
period, a rise of more than 21% (on Friday's close of $1.75). So  I have no
complaint over CAH share price performance.

Yes,  I am still having the same view over CAH, if it reports a $16-18M
profit tomorrow for the last Q, it may not as good as the corresponding Q of
last year, but will be an progressive improvement from the Q before.

CAH is inherently different to WHS. If you buy into CAH, you  are buying for
its recovery potential, as oppose to buying WHS for growth potential.

If you are a T/A guy, you would notice that WHS has displayed 4 topping! (2
double tops) on its chart @$6.8-6.85 since we last had the discussion. These
toppings were accompanied by decreasing MACD peaks. This does suggest to me
that it is running out of steam, although the uptrend is still intact. I
have bailed out after the 3rd top on the chart. I shall remain on the
sideline until WHS growth story of its investment over OZ become clearer,
which hopefully will be reflected in its chart in due course.

Cheers
Stephen


----- Original Message -----
From: "Peter" <pmaiden@today.com.au>
To: <sharechat@sharechat.co.nz>
Sent: Sunday, January 20, 2002 9:09 AM
Subject: [sharechat] CAH quarterly announcement


> SWLEE - remember our discussion back in October about CAH and WHS.
>
> We both agreed that once WHS breached the 625 level (it had shot up
>  from 575) it would continue to rise. Nice gains over the last three
> months has occured and there is really no reason why the long term
> upward trend should not continue. Hope you stayed in for the ride.
>
> We did have different opinions on CAH. You were quite bullish.
>
> Another quarter has gone by in the life of CAH and another quarterly
> announcement due next week. The press say they might report about
> $18M profit.
>
> I will perversely update the CAH performance charts I keep - for no
> other reason to remind myself not to get too interested in this
> stock.
>
> However on a serious note CAH is a major component of the NZ economy
> and such continued poor performance depresses me.
>
> As the previous three quarters total earnings are nil what they made
> in the December quarter will in effect reflect the latest 12 month
> performance.
>
> If it is $18M ( 1 cent per share) it will be considerably less than
> the $42M in the December 2000 quarter.
>
> I wonder what spin CAH will put on such a result. The $42M earnings
> in December 2000 were disappointing as CAH CEO Chris Liddell said
> "Our performance in the December quarter has been impacted by the
> slow  down in the Australian residential construction markets."
>
> One year on I thought that these slowdowns were only part of history
> and that Australian residential construction was booming. But it
> appears as if CAH will make less when market conditions are better.
>
> The situation is even worse than it was in October when we talked
> about it. Annual earnings of $18M on shareholders equity of $5
> billion and sales of $4 billion is ...(what words can describe it)
>
> SWLEE - do you still have the same views on CAH.
>
> Cheers
>
> Peter
>
>
>   --- Send the right message ---
>
>         + Today freemail +
>
> Get your free, private email address at
>        http://www.today.com.au
>
> --------------------------------------------------------------------------
--
> To remove yourself from this list, please use the form at
> http://www.sharechat.co.nz/chat/forum/
>
>



----------------------------------------------------------------------------
To remove yourself from this list, please use the form at
http://www.sharechat.co.nz/chat/forum/