Forum Archive Index - January 2002

["andrew cottingham" <arco@adinfinitum.co.nz>]

Hi Brett

The XAO (weekly) chart seems to have been  consistently running backward and forward between the 4 trend lines shown. Based on that  it would appear it could soon reach its potential and suffer a setback. Of course it could surprise us all and power through the trend line - there certainly have been some amazing volumes of late, so the money must be piling in. Looking at the chart, the last three weeks candles would appear to suggest an 'Advanced Block' or 'Stalled Pattern' which is usually consistent with a rally running out of steam, especially after a prolonged uptrend as we have had (right from after  WTC). The small white candle of last week normally indicates the weakening of the bulls power. Looking back over the period it is possible to see the same pattern appearing before declines throughout the chart. Those are my thoughts, and I would be interested to hear if anyone else can add to that (or has formulated a different opinion).

Andrew 

----- Original Message -----

From: Brett Beaumont

To: sharechat@sharechat.co.nz

Sent: Sunday, January 06, 2002 9:39 PM

Subject: Re: [sharechat] WAM

Andrew,

 

I have just been taking a look at the All Ords and would be interested in your thoughts. Sometimes the trees get in the way of the forest!, or is it your heart in front of your head!

 

And hopefully the more heads you use will enable you to see the forest!

 

Thanks

 

Brett  

----- Original Message -----

From: andrew cottingham

To: sharechat@sharechat.co.nz

Sent: Sunday, January 06, 2002 6:39 PM

Subject: Re: [sharechat] WAM

Hi Nick and other chatters.

Plans for WAM.

I apologise to chartists who can easily read the candles, but there are a number of budding chartists who are interested to hear all views re chart pattern recognition.

This is only my humble opinion, and candle charting is a bit like predicting the weather - we are working with forces beyond our control, and outcomes are occasionally different to what we expect. The constraints of low volume also make predictions hard, but I like a challenge, so here goes. I read it like this - the candle pattern of 24th and 27th Dec form a tweezer top with hanging man and jointly making a Harami pattern. (Yes it gets more complicated !).  The halt at $3.04 certainly shows a level of bearish rejection,  and the test on 3rd Jan had the bears forcing the bulls back.  Whichever way you look at it, it would seem to be a reversal signal.  I see Mondays and Tuesdays prices being no higher perhaps a little lower - don't quote me on that. So it depends on your level of fear whether  you hang on or not.

Here are the various stop loss points.

1.5 ATR $3.01

2 ATR   $2.98

2.5 ATR  $2.95

3. ATR  $2.93.

Or support could be found at RH2 $2.83 (yep, it's THAT precise). Should that fail to support  - hold on to your wallets, because RH1  $2.72 is the next support.

Other signs to be aware of - both Macd Histogram and RSI are falling, and the Aussie market is reaching a point where it might take a little breather, with a possible knock on effect to the NZ market. So, is there any good news, - well,  Para SAR has not indicated a sell yet, and prices are still above the 9 day EMA.

So, please make up your own minds, but I consider it a sell for a short term trader, with perhaps a buy back again at lower levels. Long term traders may feel comfortable with the usual roller coaster ride.

Anyone else want to make some comments ?

Andrew

Anyone want to see what the All Ords looks like currently ??????????????? If so I can post the chart as a WORD Doc.

 

 

----- Original Message -----

From: Nick McCaw

To: sharechat@sharechat.co.nz

Sent: Sunday, January 06, 2002 12:43 PM

Subject: [sharechat] WAM

I have been enjoying the posts over the last week or two, cheers.

 

Just wondering what the plans are for exiting WAM. In my experience, guesswork and gut feel isn't usually the most efficient sell strategy.

 

I would suggest that those who are currently trading WAM might want to consider taking their short term profit soon. Having a stop order below $2.98 or $2.95 might be a good way to avoid participating in the impending drop in price.

 

For those with a longer term view. There will probably be a good oppotunity to pick up a few more shares around $2.80-$2.90. I might be completely wrong, but thats what the fish entrails say today.

 

Regards

 

Nick M

XAO.doc

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