---- Original Message -----
Sent: Thursday, January 03, 2002 11:56
AM
Subject: Re: Re: [sharechat] any bored
chartists?
Don't tell me we are going to start the
new year going down the old TA vs Fundamentals track again. I thought
this thread was well and truly worn out last year under :
"Fundamentals & Technical
Analysis"
"Technical Analysis Agenda"
and
"Mary is into TA"
It appears to me that Jefley was concerned that
some shares he had considered buying, probably after a
fair deal of research and fundamental analysis, (and God forbid, reading
chatters' tips) now don't look good on the charts he has
prepared.
Jefley, without dialling up all the charts you
have mentioned, I would like to pass on a few general comments:
1. The NZ stock market has outperformed almost
all other markets over the last 12 months. To me this suggests that the
only way to go for a large number of NZ stocks is down, when the
combination of fewer exports, higher NZ dollar , and lower commodity
prices, start to bite. Speaking generally, the time to buy was 18
months ago. There are odd value stocks left, but many
others are trading at or near their highs. What the charts are
suggesting may well be right- now may be a good time to sell some NZ
stocks , and re-invest the funds with a more global spread.
2. I think Phaedrus would agree with me
that many of the NZ stocks do not lend themselves to accurate charting
analysis, as the trading volume is too low to provide meaningful trends.
Certainly CED and WKL fall into this category . Therefore your
Price-vol trend and ON Balance Volume indicators may be meaningless on such
stocks.
3. IMO, Fundamentals are the basis of
investing, and charting is a good back up to help confirm your
decisions. Even within one chart, some indicators can look very
positive, when others are quite negative.
Please don't get downcast because the charts on
your favourite stocks didn't come up looking like roses. After all
that's what it's all about, using all sources of info to make a
decision.
Here's a suggestion : chart some higher turnover
ASX stocks. Do GNS, CLO, ABG, and ELX . Let us know what your thoughts
are on these four (I have chosen them for specific reasons).
By the way, I've never charted Bollinger
Bands - looks interesting, especially good buy/sell signal
on the GNS chart. I'm going to play around
with that a little more .
Cheers, Dave
DISC> hold WKL and CED
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