Forum Archive Index - January 2002

["dsproul" <dsproul@corsairmarine.com>]

Don't tell me we are going to start the new year going down the old TA vs Fundamentals track again.  I thought this thread was well and truly worn out last year under :

 

"Fundamentals & Technical Analysis"

"Technical Analysis Agenda"   and

"Mary is into TA"

 

It appears to me that Jefley was concerned that some shares he had considered buying, probably after a fair deal of research and fundamental analysis, (and God forbid, reading chatters' tips) now don't look good on the charts he has prepared.

 

Jefley, without dialling up all the charts you have mentioned, I would like to pass on a few general comments:

 

1. The NZ stock market has outperformed almost all other markets over the last 12 months.  To me this suggests that the only way to go for a large number of NZ stocks is down, when the combination of fewer exports, higher NZ dollar , and lower commodity prices, start to bite. Speaking generally, the time to buy was 18 months ago.  There are odd value  stocks left, but many others are trading at or near their highs. What the charts are suggesting may well be right- now may be a good time to sell some NZ stocks , and re-invest the funds with a more global spread. 

 

2.  I think Phaedrus would agree with me that many of the NZ stocks do not lend themselves to accurate charting analysis, as the trading volume is too low to provide meaningful trends. Certainly CED and WKL fall into this category  .  Therefore your Price-vol trend and ON Balance Volume indicators may be meaningless on such stocks.  

 

3.  IMO, Fundamentals are the basis of investing, and charting is a good back up to help confirm your decisions.  Even within one chart, some indicators can look very positive, when others are quite negative.

 

Please don't get downcast because the charts on your favourite stocks didn't come up looking like roses.  After all that's what it's all about, using all sources of info to make a decision.

 

Here's a suggestion : chart some higher turnover ASX stocks.  Do GNS, CLO, ABG, and ELX . Let us know what your thoughts are on these four (I have chosen them for specific reasons).

 

By the way, I've never charted Bollinger Bands - looks interesting,  especially good buy/sell signal on the GNS chart. I'm going to play around with that a little more  .

 

Cheers,  Dave

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

DISC>  hold WKL and CED

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