Forum Archive Index - December 2001

["winner69 ." <wwinner69@hotmail.com>]

Viewpoint - I agree with you in that Mary doesn't really know (or want to 
understand) the realities of the world. In my opinion she is doing a lot of 
investors an injsutice and costing people money.

Reading her column todat even appalled me more

If she had bothered find out about what the seminar was all about her views 
might be different.

I have been to that seminar - it was not a hard sell of anything. Just a 
presenter passionately telling a pretty compelling story about his views 
where the markets might be heading.

Mary makes much of (quote) I doubt if there's ever been a 10-year period 
when returns declined, let alone a 14-year period

How's this for a bit of compelling  bit of evidence Mary -

Dow Jones Industrial Average
Dec. 31, 1964: 874.12
Dec. 31, 1981: 875.00

Yes Mary, over 17 years the Dow gained exactly one-tenth of one percent. 
They must have declined in some ten year periods in that time.

Those numbers I have taken from an article by Warren Buffett in the lastest 
Fortune magazine.

The gist of Warrem's article is exactly the same as that the presenter that 
Mary so disdained was telling us about

The conclusions were very much the same - the US market has had a 17 year 
bull run and is currently in decline, in all probablity for the next 17 
years.

Warren's views are more conservative about the future but even he is not 
expecting much in the way of returns in the foreseeable future.

Read Warren's article. The presentation that Mary referred to used some of 
the same data and ideas.

http://www.fortune.com/indext.jhtml?channel=print_article.jhtml&doc_id=205324

Pretty sobering stuff and on this evidence something that Mary, or any 
investor, should not discount likely

My own view is that sharemarkets will show negative returns for some time. 
That is not saying I have to get out of sharemarkets but means that to make 
gains I will need to do short to medium term trading in the stocks I fancy.

I believe I will only win if I take profits at the first sign of weakness in 
any stock I hold.

And for those that are not showing profits I will need to minmise losses by 
getting out - not hoping that one day the market may turn. As Warren points 
out I might have to wait seventeen years to get back to square one.



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