Forum Archive Index - September 2001

["Jeremy" <jeremy@electrosilk.net>]

From: NOLAJ
> what to do?
> It seems like a perfect opportunity to buy now but on reading
> recent chats I'm a little apprehensive - any positive thought
> or info on this? or shall I burn the money now?????

Airline shares go up and down like yoyo's, but Air NZ looks very much like
being only a yo.  It will be restructured down and any shareholders in it
are likely to be burned by the restructuring.

If you want to madly punt on airline shares, try Qantas.  It is pretty low
at the moment, but has an unassailable market share and government backing,
so it can only improve with time.  But beware, people always think the
worst/best about any news regarding Qantas, so it is likely to jump about
all over the place.  I suggest around $4 as a medium term (couple of years)
expected price as compared to $2.90 today and $5 a couple of years ago.  It
the meantime it will have gained and fallen significantly a dozen times.

Qantas will have problems with a downturn in international (their biggest
growth sector last year) and will get a boost in domestic (their negative
growth sector last year) There will be a few other airlines allowed in to
the Australian domestic market, but Quantas will always maintain a
government supported stranglehold. It will also not do so badly in
international due to its safety record.  It may well become a significant NZ
player as well when Air NZ becomes a minor domestic carrier.

Jeremy

Disc : Foundation shareholder in Qantas and won't be selling any time soon


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