Forum Archive Index - September 2001

["Malcolm Cameron" <malharcameron@hotmail.com>]

Snoopy
IF you can email me to my private email address a fax number even a friend 
or another sharechatter I will try and fax you a copy. Malcolm Cameron




>From: "tennyson@caverock.net.nz" <tennyson@caverock.net.nz>
>Reply-To: sharechat@sharechat.co.nz
>To: sharechat@sharechat.co.nz
>Subject: Re: [sharechat] AIR attn snoopy
>Date: Mon, 17 Sep 2001 12:10:54 +0000
>
>Hi Malcolm,
>
> > Snoopy
> > Try reading this article in australian financial review, by Alan
> > Kohler. I hope you can get it of the site I get the print version
> > every weekend. This is just an address not A link.If somebody has
> > access to print version it is on back page.
> > http://afr.com/commentopinion/ Malcolm Cameron
> >
> >
>Thanks for the reference.
>
>The AFR comment is not on the AFR site unfortunately, even to
>subscribers, so may you would be good enough to present a precis of
>it for us Malcom.
>
>Meanwhile AIR certainly has my attention.  There seem to be various
>key points which the mainstream media is continuing to miss.
>
>Firstly, the decision to allow Air New Zealand shares to be
>reinstated on the Australian Stock Exchange has been reversed.  They
>seem to be still suspended 'over there' and I am not really sure why.
>
>The second media proposition is that Brierley Investments and
>Singapore Airlines now own 37% and 34% respectively of a restructured
>Air New Zealand.   This assumes an Air New Zealand share price can be
>sustained above 60c for a 100 day period.   With the shares now down
>to half that, this seems a fantasy.
>
>>From the Air New Zealand press release of results:
>"This issue will be priced at the lower of 67 cents per share or the
>volume-weighted average price at which the Company's shares trade
>over the 10 business days preceding shareholder approval."
>
>If this price is 30c, not the fantasy 67c, then both Brierley
>Investments and Singapore Airlines will be getting 67/30=2.23 times
>the number of shares that the mainstream media thinks they are
>getting.
>
>As closely as I can figure, Air NZ now has 750million shares on
>issue.  Singapore Airlines and Brierley Investments are intending to
>put in $150million each at the assumed figure of 0.67c each.   This
>means they are getting 150/.67= 225million shares each, leading to a
>total of 750+2(225)= 1200m shares on issue.
>
>Previously Singapore Airlines held 25% of Air New Zealand or
>0.25x750=187.5million shares.  After this exercise, at 67c peer hsare
>issue price, they will hold 187.5+225= 412.5m shares, which equates
>to 412.5/1200= 34.4% of the company.
>
>This is in line with what Air New Zealand said would happen.
>So far so good.
>
>Now consider what happens if the shares are issued at 30c.  Singapore
>Airlines would therefore get 150/0.30 = 500million shares.  The
>total amount of shares on the market would rise to 750+2(500)= 1750m.
>Singapore Airlines would then own 187.5+500=687.5m shares after the
>restructuring.
>
>687.5/1750 means Singapore Airlines would then get 39.3% of Air New
>Zealand, which is beyond the government's 35% cap.  There is no
>guarantee that Air New Zealand can retain their international landing
>rights under this scenario.   This rescue deal is now dead IMHO.
>SNOOPY
>
>
>
>
>---------------------------------
>Message sent by Snoopy
>e-mail  tennyson@caverock.net.nz
>on Pegasus Mail version 2.55
>----------------------------------
>"Sometimes to see the wood from the trees,
>you have to cut down all the trees."
>
>
>
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