Forum Archive Index - July 2001

["Peter" <pmaiden@xtra.co.nz>]

Yesterdays NZIER Business Confidence Survey was pretty positive - from the NZIER press release "A net 1% of businesses surveyed now expect the general business situation to improve over the next six months. This compares to a net 2% of firms who expected a deterioration in the March quarter survey"

However Dr Cullen jumped on the better news by emphasising   -  "On a seasonally adjusted basis confidence improved more strongly: from a net balance of —12 in March to +16 in June...."

I can understand seasonality when it comes to say more ice cream being sold in summer than winter etc but when "seasonality"  is used in the context of business confidence I am at a bit of a loss.

You are either more/less/same confident at any point of time.

Does the weather influence our business leader's thinking? or is the 'seasonally adjusted' figure in this survey a reflection of better (?) weather in the June quarter?

And these sorts of numbers can influence what happens to the sharemarket, our currency and even if Brash will adjust interest rates.

Cheers

Peter