Forum Archive Index - July 2001

["G Stolwyk" <stolwyk@wave.co.nz>]

 

Michael,

 

Thanks for your excellent post!

 

1.You were referring to the listing result of RBC: See my post of  26 March, 2001: " Rubicon, - First leg of the double! ".

 

That competition arose from " Market price of RUBICON - An opinion ", of March 24, 2001.That was an important document as the equation: RBC = 1.4 FS + Assets, was first used.

 

The predicted closing price from the contributors was only 1 cent less than actual on listing day!

 

As no real alternative data were available, many people would have been influenced by one of above mentioned reports and the contributor's predictions.

 

 

2. Your selection of RBC= 80 cents on Sept 1, 2001, is a price, I agree with, due to :

 

When the buy-back was announced, the share price rose significantly and thus, part of the future expected price rise has already been built in! 

 

Some overseas institutions are already making a good profit and would be willing to sell at a very nice convenient 80 cents. 

 

Some large quantities will be handed over at that price and this will be enough for RBC " to take it easy" and just sit there waiting for the remainder to fall in their lap.

 

RBC could try for say 78-79 cents, however, if that would take too long; there is a great " danger ", that the CNIF Partnership results from the Receiver could be due which could increase the FFS/FFSPA share price and hence the RBC price.

 

( Come to think of it, the buy- back should have been done this month! I suppose, their sales of assets were as yet not concluded ). 

 

RBC will be trying to secure this lot within a week if this is at all possible, I think!    

 

 

3. A sudden downturn in the markets or an early decision by the CNIF Receiver will influence the price of RBC.

 

The 85 cents mentioned by some of the contributors did not take into account any effect of the latter as they were asked not to.

 

However, if a decision by the Receiver is published either before 1 Sep., 2001 or is understood to be due shortly thereafter, then this price could be easily reached, depending on the expected outcome!

 

If this is positive, then FFS and RBC holders will  see the Gravy train once again !

 

Good luck to the FFS/FFSPA and RBC holders! 

 

Gerry

Holds RBC

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