Forum Archive Index - July 2001

["nick" <helmett@xtra.co.nz>]

              Some sense at last.  These chartists like to have their cake
and
eat it.  In their own eyes they can never be wrong.
  First they say charts dont predict the future (cant blame them if mistake)
Then they have the cheek to say they saw the plunge in frucor coming
 (after the event) claiming their were signs in the chart it was about to
happen.
         I pointed out this contradiction before and was called an idiot.
  nick


>
>
> I disagree.  The Frucor price gave some warning before the up trend
> ended, yes.   You know with hindsight that the price plunged
> afterwards.  But if the result, as announced, had been much better
> than expected, a new *up* trend might have started instead.   You
> would have jumped out of Frucor when the trend changed, and sat on
> the sidelines waiting for the new up trend to be confirmed, thus
> incurring two lots of brokerage *and* missing out on the capital gain
> that happened while the new up trend was confirmed!  There was no
> warning of any fall as such.
>
>
> >
> > Ahem, Telstra and Telecom NZ are *not* cyclical stocks.
> >
> > Yes, technically you're quite correct.  However, you know what I
> > mean. I should have said VOLATILE.
> >
>
>
> There is widespread risk of misinterpretation on this forum, so I
> think it pays to be technically precise if you can be.   Actually I
> wouldn't even agree that TLS and TEL were even that volatile.   They
> certainly went through a volatile period as the tech bubble burst,
> but they haven't been nearly as volatile either before or since as a
> conservative old economy companies like Wrightson's or Fletcher
> Forest's for instance over the last two years.
>
>
>
> >
> >
> > If you look at the chart for TLS over the past 12 months, there have
> > been several oscillations with a period of between 2 and 2.5 months.
> >  At each of those peaks, I was in profit, yet on each of the dips I
> > was in a loss situation.  So a more sensible strategy would have
> > been to trade the stock, instead of buy and hold.
> >
> >
>
>
> That depends on your objectives, and your philosophies and how much
> time you have for this game.   For me, sharemarket investment is a
> hobby, albeit a profitable one.   It may be that I could do even
> better if I put more effort into picking up trend analysis skills.
> But my impression is that trading isn't an easy way to riches.  Those
> that are successful have to work very hard at it, and keep a fairly
> close eye on their computer screen on a day to day basis.   Contrast
> this with my case, I would be quite happy going on holiday for a
> month without knowing any day to day details of what was happening
> with my investments.
>
> If you are serious about trading you have to be much more rigorous
> with your account keeping, carefully documenting the result of each
> trade, both for your own cash flow and so that if IRD wish to
> audit you they can.   Then, of course, you will have to pay income
> tax on your trading profits which means you are tax disadvantaged
> compared with any capital gains you might happen to get as a by
> product of your being an investor for income.  These are the sort of
> factors who have to balance up should you wish to become a serious
> trader. SNOOPY
>
>
>
>
> ---------------------------------
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