Forum Archive Index - June 2001

[jerrold poh <pohj@ihug.co.nz>]

hello,

have just finished reading Buffettology and the first company i decided
to analyse was AIA.  this company has been _trending_ up for the past
year, and from what i've heard anyway, alot of people are expecting big
things from it.  (feel free to disagree with me here).

anyway, i punched in the numbers into a spreadsheet and started to value
the company.  i won't go into detail of the methods i used (actually, i
used one of each of the methods that Mary Buffett metioned), and can't
seem to find a good value?  the numbers i've come up with are from the
lowest 5% pa for the next 10 years, to a about 13% .. nothing really
special (since the average (consertively) would be below 10%), but in
the last 2 months, the price has nearly risen 5% - 10% ?  (btw, i've
just taken the average of the EPS since i don't think the EPS growth of
2001 of 20% is possible to do again - just to be safe :) ).

maybe if one was to puchase it, one should buy it because of the
momentum it has gained and hold it till it breaks this trend?  (btw, i'm
viewing this in netbroker, which doesn't use a log scale, so it might've
already broken the trend?).

thoughts?


jerrold.
ps, i've only just freshly written up my spreadsheets, and have only
given it the quick once over but i'm pretty sure those numbers are more
or less accurate.


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