Forum Archive Index - June 2001

["tennyson@caverock.net.nz" <tennyson@caverock.net.nz>]

Hi Peter,
 
> 
> By definition a down trend is a series of lower highs and the trend
> line is drawn through the highs (peaks). The current TLS down trend
> is as clear as one gets, Phaedrus did not choose to put it where he
> did to make his story better.
>
>
OK Peter, I accept your definition.  You can draw the trend line 
through the peaks if you like.  But if you were a medium term trader 
you would have made a huge loss on the big dip of last July if you 
were waiting for the share to bounce up to the long term trend line. 
>
> 
> The 3 peaks at just over 900 was also a clear sign that the market
> got cold feet at this stage and didn't want to value TLS any higher.
> No doubt there would have been profit taking at this time and
> probably there were more sellers thanbuyers that forced the price
> down. Three attempts to get over 900 and not enough buyers each time
> to take the plunge. The three peaks are not an illusion - they
> represent the interaction between the buyers and sellers at that
> time.
>
>
So what you are saying is that buying into Telstra at $A9.00 might 
have been a risky proposition?  I agree.  But Telstra is nowhere near 
that now.
>
> 
> Gerry - are referring to the infamous Mr Li in Hong Kong and the debt
> ridden PCCW? That sounds like a good story.
>
> 
Yes I am sure he is :-(.  This is the great unknown in the future of 
Telstra.   Telstra have a funding committment of some $A7billion over 
the next few years.  Frank Fernandez did a 'Stocktake' article on 
Telstra last year which spoke in rather glowing terms of the 
potential of this move.  You might like to review it.  The Pacific 
Century Cyberworks Partnership is certainly a high risk/high return 
investment direction for Telstra.

A question the potential Telstra Investor must bear in mind is what 
happens if this expansion goes wrong.   I address this issue in a 
more general way on the Focus Investment Group under the 
'Flexibility' section of the discussion "Debt, Assets, Margins and 
Flexibility" thread, except that I haven't written the flexibility 
bit yet :-).  SNOOPY




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