Forum Archive Index - May 2001

["SWLEE" <SWLEE@xtra.co.nz>]

Philip,

Since my name was mentioned, I thought i'd better respond to the statement I quoted " Picking the tops and bottoms ". What the statement refers to is that one would never sell when the price is at the top, nor one would buy when the share is at the bottom, because no one knows where the tops/bottoms will be.

 

Reasons being, when the share price is rising, and because we can never predict when the top will come, one should ride with it until the price drops below the trend line before selling. Likewise, when the share price is dropping and as we can never know when the price will bottom out, one should not buy until the price starts to turn around and hit the trend line. That is what Phaedrus has been advocating in his posts.

 

One might hit the bull's eye when trying to guess the top/bottom of the price cycle, but the technical approach that Phaedrus been showing will certainly help to eliminate the guess work, hence offers a degree of certainty in timing your selling or buying.

 

Cheers

Stephen

 

----- Original Message -----

From: Philip Robinson

To: sharechat@sharechat.co.nz

Sent: Wednesday, May 30, 2001 10:59 AM

Subject: [sharechat] Frucor

Phaedrus,

 

My post was meant in no way to be sarcastic, although you rightly pick that I am sceptical about charting. I simply wanted to know whether you could have predicted the rise with your methods. I do note that they said the rise started because a big seller had stopped selling, can you pick up any clues from things like volume of this occurrence?

 

Just like in medicine ignorance breeds descent or whatever the saying goes so there is never a time to turn one's back on a different theory or hypothesis...but I draw the line at homeopathy.

 

And swlee on the same reasoning whenever a share drops below its intrinsic value then one should buy it would seem, irrelevant of the trend because by definition you are winning.

 

Just my thoughts

Cheers

 

Phil