Forum Archive Index - May 2001

["hugh webber" <hugh.webber@clear.net.nz>]

I agree with you here Gerry, people are still moving to Auckland, air
travel
continues to expand, business is expanding around Auckland Airport.
The advice I have trouble with is the blanket advice to buy leveraged
residential property. The leverage works in reverse too, meaning you lose
your shirt. Examples from the past won't work in the future. The NZ labour
force is predicted to start contracting from 2007 and the population after 
that. The Japanese population is predicted to halve over the next century.
Christchurch capital values of houses are expected to decline in the next
announcement later this year.
Unless we encourage more immigrants and lend them lots of money to
buy houses and businesses we're in for a bleak future. Its not happening
at the moment, people can't see the past and the present. 
If your investment horizon extends into the medium/long term - hold onto 
your hats, we're in for a rough ride.


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