Forum Archive Index - March 2001

["Andrew Dengel" <adengel@voyager.co.nz>]

Good point
That is true but I guess it always has been "just a commodity" and it is
supply and demand that's sets its price like everything else. It seems that
a lot of cultures still place strong values on gold, and as the worlds
population continues to grow and more third world countries continue to
develop (particularly asian countries who are one of those cultures that
seem to particularly value gold) supply and demand will continue to keep its
value rising in good times? I don't know just a thought.

Andrew

-----Original Message-----
From: owner-sharechat@sharechat.co.nz
[mailto:owner-sharechat@sharechat.co.nz]On Behalf Of Michael Gore
Sent: Saturday, 24 March 2001 10:23
To: sharechat@sharechat.co.nz
Subject: Re: [sharechat] Otter? - Thoughts

I remember hearing a commentator on the National Radio news I think maybe
about 8 months ago saying think of gold as just another commodity and that
the days of gold being a good investment in hard times were over.  Sorry
can't remember too many details but I remember clearly thinking at the time
that he made a lot of sense.  Anyone else have any thoughts about gold as
just a commodity like any other?  Obviously it makes nice jewellery but what
else can you do with gold?  Not much that I can think of.  michael


----- Original Message -----
From: "Derek" <dkw@paradise.net.nz>
To: <sharechat@sharechat.co.nz>
Sent: Saturday, March 24, 2001 9:14 AM
Subject: Re: [sharechat] Otter? - Thoughts


> The NBR artical was informative, but I don't agree that GPG
> could pick up OTR for 31 cps. In the last while, OTR has
> reached up to 40 cps without much selling pressure
> coming into play. IMHO the drift down in share price
> is coming from a lack of buying interest rather
> than people queueing up to sell.
>
> OTRs share price is obviously strongly related to the gold
> price. They have about 83 m shares and produce about 110 000
> ounces of gold in a year.
>
> If the price of gold goes up 42c US per ounce then
> that would add $11 m (NZ) to their bottom line (13 cps).
> If it goes up further than that then the upside could
> be huge. If gold goes down or stays the same then
> OTR appears to be in trouble.
>
> My conclusion is that there is good gearing to be had
> in OTR at the moment with respect to the price of gold,
> however this should be balanced by the downside risk of
> gold staying static.
>
> According to some commentators (www.privateer.com) the
> gold price has bottomed, so here's hoping.
>
> I've found that http://www.kitco.com/ is good for
> keeping an eye on gold. One approach would be to look
> for a sustained upward movement in gold and buy into Otter
> at that stage (assumming the market here has not already reacted).
>
> In the meantime, I'm waiting for a bottoming out of OTR
> in order to do a little averaging down.
>
> Derek
>
>
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