Forum Archive Index - March 2001

[Murdoch Dryden <m.dryden@auckland.ac.nz>]

Title: Re: [sharechat] Is now the time to buy agriculture-based shares?

I would hazard you have missed the boat, these stocks are near the top of their cycle.  Buy when the commodity cycle is at the bottome and wait for the inevitable correction.  be aware however that the long run returns of primary producers have been in steady decline for teh last 100 years.  .  Furthermore I would argue that the current foot and mouth epidemic may have short term benefits for NZ agriculture (depending on how consumers react to erroneous reports in US and Germany rgarding our being infected too), but long term the effects will be in fewer consumers trusting or being prepared to eat meat.  We may end up with a bigger slice of the pie, but the pie will have shrunk.

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