Forum Archive Index - January 2001

["Matthew Van Veen" <mattvanveen@hotmail.com>]

Its a hard one to pick. Just when you think it may be worth a look, you turn 
on your TV and see another de-railment on the news. Can't be good for 
investor confidence. Roughly (trying to think back) - I recall 3 derailments 
and 1 head on crash since December.

WHS - The Stephen Tindall factor must be worth a lot of the share price. I 
think they will eventually immulate in Aust what they did in NZ but not 
overnight. With already announced less than expected xmas sales figures the 
price may drop further. Take Stephen Tindall away and you may see buying 
opportunties around $4.50 - $4.75 before the Aussie growth kicks in IMHO.

DIS: do not own TRH or WHS (but will one day. Spent virtually every day in 
one during xmas shopping).


>From: "charlie brown" <gordy_gecko@hotmail.com>
>Reply-To: sharechat@sharechat.co.nz
>To: sharechat@sharechat.co.nz
>Subject: Re: [sharechat] Tranzrail ...idle gossip
>Date: Fri, 19 Jan 2001 11:21:32 +1100
>
>Aagh, the same Dennis "pick a figure at random" Lee who said that Fletcher 
>Forests could trade as low as $0.10.
>
>Sorry to be cynical.
>
>The figure quoted re the demise of the Top Cat seems awfully high?
>
>
>>From: "Mike Hudson" <mikehudson@clear.net.nz>
>>Reply-To: sharechat@sharechat.co.nz
>>To: <sharechat@sharechat.co.nz>
>>Subject: Re: [sharechat] Tranzrail ...idle gossip
>>Date: Fri, 19 Jan 2001 13:08:34 +1300
>>
>>Just arrived in my in box, Obviously these folk have not had the benefit 
>>of a camping holiday on the Coast.
>>
>>Tranz Rail Holdings… Recommendation Upgrade and earnings forecast update 
>>Our medium-term market outlook is softer than previously expected, and the 
>>operating costs of TRH are likely to be higher due to an expansion in the 
>>fast ferry business and higher than expected fuel costs and casualties & 
>>insurance charges… The combined impact of the revenue downgrades and 
>>higher operating costs reduces our revised NPAT by 30% in FY01 to $32.3m; 
>>23% in FY02 to $49.8m; and 22% in FY03 to $53.9m… Our DCF valuation of TRH 
>>is $4.20, of which $0.40 is attributed to our valuation of the potential 
>>contribution to TRH from the demise of Top Cat… Although the stock is 
>>unlikely to trade at its valuation level in the near-term, its relative 
>>attractiveness has improved recently. With corporate activity having the 
>>potential to surprise the market on the upside, we have upgraded our 
>>recommendation from HOLD to ADD. (Source: Dennis M Lee, Analyst, ABN AMRO 
>>NZ)
>>
>
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