Forum Archive Index - December 2000

["hugh webber" <hugh.webber@clear.net.nz>]

yes Gerry, I'd agree with that. After 1987 and in the current
environment debt gives me an uneasy feeling although interest
rates look likely to go down significantly.

You need to be in a company with dependable cash flow and
profitability like AIA and to a lesser extent the Warehouse to
be able to borrow with assurance.
So much is changing so rapidly; the Post Office makes its first 
ever loss and although its killed off one competitor in the process
there are a myriad others but worst of all burgeoning email traffic
which is faster, cheaper, in electronic storage with immediate 
hard copy available, and Telecom is no longer a reliable investment.
Its getting harder and harder to pick reliable companies in NZ who 
can safely borrow.
I suppose its lucky we have S & P and a couple of other crowds
around to publish credit ratings on companies although sometimes
some of their decisions appear rather precious and footling and you
start to wonder whether its coy directors who are making the 
investment decisions or S & P's. I note that some of the very
successful Chinese investment families have a policy of no debt.
When the chips are down its the bank who is the weak link that
will give way.

I'd say AIA is worth rather more than the $3.30 you mention, I 
think Changi paid two dollars ninety something for their 5% stake
with alacrity and that was a while ago now. Unfortunately I don't
have any but I look at the nice picture on the front of their 
investment prospectus and slaver occasionally....if only the 
People's Republic of Christchurch would float some of Chch 
Intnl Airport...

cheers,
Hugh
P S I usually just read the sharechat that comes via email but
I now notice I'm missing an increasing number that get posted directly
without coming as email. I'll have to make an effort to log on more -
not easy with a teenage daughter chiyacking me to get into hotmail &.


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