Forum Archive Index - December 2000

[Gerry Tyler-Smith <g.tylersmith@ext.canterbury.ac.nz>]

Good point, Grant,  about all the bad news being on the table, though
wouldn't CNIP receivership be more back news?  Sorry to be so niggly.
Though I do agree with you that it could be Citic who is doing rights
buying.

    Gerry,   You make some extremely valid points. Maybe you're right --
FFS share price will plunge  post-rights. It certainly happened with Air
NZ, although you have to  agree the lowest point was only 6.7% (AIRVA at
140c) below the rights issue  price of 150c.  Some of that difference has
been recovered already (AIRVA =  143c today). And chances are that a
recovery to 150c won't be too  far away.   But there is one fundamental
difference between FFS  Rights Issue and AIR NZ:   ==> All the bad news was
on the table prior to the  rights issue commencing.   OK, CITIC have done
their best to stuff things up  during the rights trading period, but who
knows, they may have been doing some  of the buying...   I don't see what
yet-to-be-disclosed factors there are  which could make FFS price fall
further. A rights issue nearly always depresses the price of a  share, and
once we are clear of the impact of that (say Jan/Feb), there should  be
good scope for recovery.   We'll see who is right on Monday I  guess...  
Cheers   Grant  Keymer
>____________




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