Forum Archive Index - November 2000

["G Stolwyk" <stolwyk@wave.co.nz>]

Brian,

 

My entries of  Nov. 12,13 and 14 may be of some help.

 

I did put a value of appr. 60 cents/share (before the cash issue).

This translates to 36.6 cents after the issue. Others have put a valuation of 43 cents on the stock.

 

These valuations assume that the partnership with the Chinese will continue, and that 'lucky' RUBICON will take over the surplus rights.

 

Some investors do not make a distinction between Valuation and Market price.

 

In commodity stocks  the market price - depending on  the state of the cycle-can be at least 30% less than the valuation!  

 

Often, firms refuse to depreciate values: To do so may cause a breach of loan covenants and/or decrease share prices. Higher share prices tend to increase takeover prices! 

 

The- mentioned- 36.6 and 43 cents will equate with market prices of 25.6(not a bad guess with rights @ 0.5 cents!) and 30.1 cents.

 

If the shareholders and Rubicon carry on the business, then the share price could stay at low levels. It could improve if the current dispute is settled and then fall back somewhat, later, due to the sheer supply: Imitation of Brierly?.

 

 If  Weisenhauer or other parties make a bid, then the bid price will be closer to a valuation made by an independent and honest party.

 

If one is keen to get into a forestry stock, then CAH at a discount of some 40% to valuation, with high cash reserves, could be a superior investment!

And you will get a reasonable dividend as well! 

Mind you, after you look at the tarot cards and judge that a takeover for FFS is imminent, you may decide to take up the rights!

 

 It is a matter of making comparisons and ferret out those investments which give a good income over a longer term and which one can live with, I think.

 

Those are my opinions,

 

Gerry