Forum Archive Index - November 2000

[Derek <dkw@paradise.net.nz>]

>So, what are the sectors to look at for the next year?

>warner

Hi Warner,

I think that good yielding relatively safe shares
will be the best place for money next year.

The increasing amount of negative news on the horizon,
particularly in the U.S., seems to indicate that next
year we may all be better off by putting our money in
the bank.

I have already moved alot of my money into defensive
shares (Bought SEU at $1.04 for a 3% return in a month
and am looking for similar 'safe' options).
Occasionally I have mentioned the NCM however for me
the NCM is a 1 to 4 day investment.

But the sectors -

you mentioned -

>Food/ Household goods  + 12%
>Alcohol/ Tobacco       + 10%
>Infra/ Utilities       + 10%
>Banking                +  8%

Maybe it would be worth while sticking to these
next year, but would that give a return high enough
to compensate for the risk premium given to shares ?

Another area that interests me but I have little feeling
for is Wine, there seem to be a few wine companies
on the secondary board.
I wander if the sector has been played out already
or if it is still getting going?

Another is mining, gold in particular. This to
me seems like a good defensive type of share to
own since in times of crises the gold price seems
to go up. Also buying gold this year would have been
a better investment than buying shares. The other 
thing is that this sector is out of favor right now,
so there is no premium to be paid. (I went for OTR
at 40c since GPG are better judges of value than I)

IT companies and Telecos seem to be becoming commodity
shares, maybe with the exception of the few at the top,
anyway there seems too much negative sentiment in that
whole area at the moment.

Maybe fishing would be good with deminishing
world fish stocks, but with increasing diesel prices
their profits may be hit. 

I'd be interested to hear other peoples thoughts on 
sector trends as well.

Derek





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