Forum Archive Index - November 2000

["Graeme & Jill Christie" <bayvu@ihug.co.nz>]

Thanks Peter. I've got to admit that charting stuff takes my breath away,
but personally I'll be surprised if SKY got down to $2-30,although at 1900
odd........I did read that Sky are having trouble getting the
next-generation set-top boxes to work but when they do I'll be able to
justify a new T.V.  Regards G.
-----Original Message-----
From: Peter Maiden <pmaiden@today.com.au>
To: sharechat@sharechat.co.nz <sharechat@sharechat.co.nz>
Date: Thursday, 2 November 2000 14:07
Subject: [sharechat] SKY - chartists say wait until 230


>Graham - I too have taken an interest in SKY lately.
>
>A DCF valuation of SKY I did six months or so ago come to about 420-440
range.
>
>Since then I have reduced it to 350 taking into account factors as the
delay in getting their interactive whatevers up and running and the low
dollar.
>
>They put a telephone jack in next to the TV when the digital decoder was
installed at home a year ago but still no sign of any developments since.
Suggests they are having problems getting something to work. Low dollar
factored in because all programs are purchased in $US.
>
>Pay TV has almost become the norm these days. No doubt SKY have set
themselves up for a good income stream over the next few years and will turn
profit from their decoders in due course. An extension outside of TV into
interactive things is all speculative - but is the way the world will look
one day. What real returns will come from such activities is anybody's guess
but they add something to the core business of TV programing.
>
>I am not much into charting but SKY is one stock that has showed a classic
price channel.
>
>So I asked aometime who seemed to know about such things to enhance my
knowledge. The outcome of this enhanced knowledge -
>
>Have a look at the SKY chart and note the bottom of the cyclical troughs of
230 on 16/12/98, 285 on 10/11/99, 290 on 7/1/00.
>
>Corresponding peaks have been (excluding the craxy times in early 2000) 350
on 11/2/99, 370 on 20/7/99 and 421 on 31/700.
>
>The stock has over the past few years (except the crazy times) traded
within a channel limit of 115. The distance between the lines when the above
upper and limits are joined together.
>
>When SKY got done to 325 on 12/10 it reached its 'return line' and should
have headed up to about 460 odd in the next 100 days or so. Great I thought
as it fitted in with my DCF valuation.
>
>I waited a few days to see what would happen.
>
>A 'channel breakout' occurred. Theory says that when this happens the price
generally travels a distance equivalent to the distance of the channel.
>
>We would expect the price to fall to 230 odd before turning up.
>
>Interesting stuff - but the person who explained this to me has me
convinced and I am waiting until near the 230 before buying. Maybe sticking
with INL is a better and safer bet.
>
>Only time will tell
>
>Good luck with your decision.
>
>Peter
>
>
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>       + today freemail +
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>
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