Forum Archive Index - October 2000

["hugh webber" <hugh.webber@clear.net.nz>]

gidday Geoff; perfect reply in today's Sunday Star-Times page E7.
Nice juicy big article "Casualties of hi-tech fever - The glory days
of the Internet whizz-kids are over. Now the high technology sector
is characterised by share price collapses and lay-offs." Heh, heh heh.
Now don't get me wrong, I'm very much in favour of new technology
and pioneering; I'm a devotee of Schumpeters economic advances
via waves of entrepreneurs and new inventions.
I'm also impressed by Buffett's thorough research into what it has
meant on average to investors from new inventions such as railways, 
electricity, cars, planes and his findings that the overall return to 
investors has been zilch as you look at the sunk capital pioneering
costs and the waves of competition that came in like a swarm of angry 
hornets as soon as the payback started.

So what I am saying is hooray for new technology and entrepreneurs,
they're our future but as an investor I wouldn't touch them with a 40
foot pole I'd rather have a go at AIA or POA or whatever.
I really applaud all you other guys who are doing your dough, I'll
clap enthusiastically from the sidelines while banking my profits
from elsewhere.
There's also quite a bit of analysis in The Economist and elsewhere
that the people to benefit from new technology are household
consumers and business consumers not the producers.
Oh, I do have one pet hate - Luddites who oppose GM and Bio-tech
like Sue Kedgley. My demand is not for a shop where I can only
buy 'organic' food only modified by radiation from the sun and by 
natural evolution but for a shop where I can only buy GM and Bio-tech
products. I'd do all my shopping there to encourage innovation! Can
anyone refer me to one?

cheers,
Hugh 


----------
> From: Geoff Ewert <gewert@wai.quik.co.nz>
> To: sharechat@sharechat.co.nz
> Subject: [sharechat] Wadda ya recon Hugh??
> Date: Friday, 27 October 2000 10:52
> 
> Hi.. Hugh .
> "Some days you are the bug, some days you are the windshield".
> ZEN ??(Roy)
> 
> >From Changewave today,the following:
> >
> > 
> > Don't let this happen to you...
> > 
> > Every time technology stocks hit a rough patch, scaredy-cat
> > investors run and hide...only to kick themselves a few months later
> > when they miss out on the next wave of huge, unstoppable profits.
> > 
> > I see it happening again right now.  Everyone, everywhere is
> > proclaiming the end of the PC...the death of tech-behemoth
> > Intel...and the beginnings of a technology stock bear market.  And
> > Wall Street--in typical knee-jerk fashion--is dumping the stocks as
> > fast as they possibly can.  It happened around this same time last
> > year.  And the year before that, too.  In fact, it happens almost
> > every single year.
> > 
> > But those of us who've been around awhile--and unlike most of the
> > Johnny-come-latelies you hear blathering on CNBC, I've been
> > analyzing technology stocks for 30 long years--know that this
> > industry is very cyclical.  Late summer and early fall are all about
> > buying technology stocks on the cheap, while January and February
> > are about selling them very, very high.  This year is absolutely no
> > different.
> > 
> > Almost every company I talk to says business is good, orders are
> > ahead of schedule, European demand is unusually strong (despite the
> > weak euro), and they are bullish on the outlook for the rest of the
> > year and into 2001.  And that means it's just a matter of time--most
> > likely weeks--before everyone and their uncle starts the mad dash to
> > pile as much money as they can into the tech sector, before it once
> > again breaks out to new heights.
> > 
> > But don't be fooled--there will be lots of disappointed investors. 
> > You see, most people will be too slow to figure out what's really
> > going on, and they will inevitably jump back in at the wrong time,
> > missing most of the next run-up.  Don't let that happen to you. Wall
> > Street is handing us an especially great opportunity right now to
> > buy the dominant industry leaders at absolute rock-bottom, fire-sale
> > prices.  Take advantage of it.
> > 
> > My Technology Investing readers and I did exactly that last
> > fall--and we raked in 157% profits for the year.  You can bet your
> > bottom we're doing the same thing again this year.  YOU SHOULD TOO. 
> > I urge you: If you do nothing else after reading this, run out and
> > get yourself fully invested in technology stocks right now--today. 
> > This time around you'll be kicking your profits all the way to the
> > bank!
> > 
> > Sincerely,
> > Michael Murphy
> cheers G
> > 
> 
> 
> 
>
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