Forum Archive Index - October 2000

["Ben Dutton" <bendutton@sharechat.co.nz>]

Hi Michael,

I'm not really reading between the lines that there may be corporate
activity in Telecom - there have been many whispers and suppositions over
the past couple of months with regards to several possible tie-ups/alliances
TEL may proceed with (Remember the Singapore Telecom rumours a couple of
months back?  They resulted in...nothing).

In saying that, the Australian Financial Review seemed to report as "fact"
that TEL and NTT DoCoMo had made an offer for Cable & Wireless Optus' mobile
assets.  quote:

"Telecom New Zealand has emerged as a leading contender for the mobile
assets, in tandem with Japanese giant NTT DoCoMo, with a proposal to control
40 per cent and 20 per cent of the wireless asset respectively, with the
balance to be sold in a public float."

The Sydney Morning Herald backed this up on Friday in an article.  Quote:

"With Wednesday's closing of expressions of interest in the Optus assets, it
is understood that Telecom NZ and DoCoMo lodged a joint submission outlining
their interest in acquiring the Optus businesses."

Thus we have two major Australian newspapers reporting the story as fact -
yet, and I quote from an article in Stuff last Thursday

"A Telecom spokeswoman said the story was speculation and if there was
something shareholders or the Stock Exchange should be told Telecom would do
that".

So, is there corporate activity or is this just another baseless rumour?  As
I said before, there has been much speculation over the past couple of
months surrounding TEL, and most of it has come to nothing.  Perhaps this
time it is different?  I can't say.

But, as I said in a post on Friday, I do think that TEL is cheap at the
moment - but remember, I thought of it as cheap when it was trading around
$7.  Until there is a worldwide favourable shift in sentiment toward the
telecommunications sector again, I can't see TEL's share price improving
dramatically.

And, still on the subject of rumours, Saturday's "Press" reported that CEN's
recent rise had "taken place alongside 'a heavy does of rumours' on the
corporate front, notably that controlling shareholder Edison Mission of the
United States may be planning to increase its stake."

Of course, we've heard this many times before with CEN - and nothing has
eventuated.  Is this time any different?  Once again, its speculation and
may, or may not, turn into something.

So sorry I haven't been much help Michael - but I will say that (and this
applies to everyone) that if one buys on speculation, one has to remember
that there is a possibility of losing money if the speculation turns out to
be unfounded.  Of course, it goes the other way round too, but people
sometimes forget about the former in the heat of the moment.

Comments on this post welcome :-)

Best Regards

Benjamin Dutton
(Disc. hold neither TEL nor CEN but occasionally trade the former)


----- Original Message -----
From: "michgore" <michgore@i4free.co.nz>
To: <sharechat@sharechat.co.nz>
Sent: Sunday, October 22, 2000 7:23 PM
Subject: [sharechat] Telecom - Ben


> Hi Ben,
> I read the aricle at the link you posted.  Are you reading anything
> between the lines regarding the corporate activity discussed in the
> article?  I've noticed from your posts in the past you are following
> Telecom.  What's your current position?  I was thinking of selling out
> of CEN should it get close to $3.00 in the next couple of weeks and I
> was considering transferring the funds into TEL.  regards  michael
>
>
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