Forum Archive Index - October 2000

[David Lawton <dlawton@ihug.co.nz>]

>From observations of Capstone Turbine (CPST) over recent weeks, it is
plainly apparent, that US investors are highly aware of Fletchers
intention to sell down their holdings, particularly when compared with
say Fuel Cell Energy, (FCEL) whose stock was recently in price parity
with Capstone stock. While Fuel Cell continues to increase on investor
excitement within this space, Capstone is being hit, in net terms.

The temporary uptrend in Capstone Turbine's price is only while the deal
is in limbo mode, (and includes a NASDAQ dead-cat bounce) and is likely
to continue its fall once an approval with the Security Commission
becomes viable.

Capstone Turbine is where the value is perceived to be within Fletcher
Energy's price with American investors, and thus creates a 'double
jeopardy' to Fletcher Group investors in terms of timing to complete the
deal - especially with the possibility of NASDAQ breaking down through
the 3000 support level on it's indices.

It is inconceivable that Rod Deane and Co would not have been aware of
the risks of failure of railroading this whole transaction through the
Commerce Commission,
given the intimate discussions that would have transpired between the
two parties, together with Shell executives.  They have either failed
utterly and irresponsibly, given the 'dominance' considerations or there
is a 'Plan B'.

If 'Plan B' fails to obtain approval, it will not only be Forestry
shareholder's who will want Sir Roderick's head on the platter, it will
be the entire Group's.
'Plan C' - having remaining divisions as separate entities will take a
long time to recover their value, given the destruction of trust in
Fletcher management.

Disclosure of Interest
I am a holder of Fletcher Capital Notes.

David Lawton
Westmere

Ph 376 1696

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