Forum Archive Index - October 2000

[oli@vodafone.net.nz]

One thing in the FFS drama troubled me the most, and it is something that has
not been argued yet (at least not very well).  That is, to what extent had the
market impounded the impact of "no sale".  

It has been suggested by some that FFS shareholders "have only themselves to
blame" for chasing a quick buck.  Maybe.  Maybe not.  

It was noted that a restructuring has been "the most likely outcome" for at
least the last three weeks or so.  Why wasn't this impounded in the price???


Now, I admit, I bought in recently in the mid 80s, and I'm none too impressed.
But that's life - as they say at Otago "Get over it".  Could be worse.  I could
be terminaly ill rather than my portfolio.  

My feeling was that a restructuring was the most likley outcome for FFS.  I
thought that's what the "market's" view was too, so I "guessed" that the 
downside
risk of the market's view being confirmed would not lower the price below 70c.
(which, as now suggested by some, is where they "should" be) The swiftness with
which the price has fallen to 42c is insane.  It shows one of two things: (1)
the selling is not rational; or (2) the market did NOT expect the restructuring.
 If the later is the case, then people should be a little less hasty in 
criticising
FFS "punters" for bemoaning the extreme freefall that they've been subject to.
 If the former is the case, then the punters should be forgiven bemoaning the
irrationality that is dragging down their otherwise rational investment.  

This is of course a debatable point.  Debate away...

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