Forum Archive Index - October 2000

["Moose" <aorang@voyager.co.nz>]

Hi Grant,

My thoughts on ADV.
 Although they are widely touted as the best NZ tech stock (hardly 
a big field of starters though) I think they really shot themselves in 
the foot with the fiasco when they last reported earnings.

It has made me wary and I am sure a lot of other investors also.

Aside from that tech stocks are being hammered worldwide at 
present, the NZSE seems to always be getting hammered, the NZ 
government's policies are out of favour and New Zealand seems to 
be slipping quickly into oblivion.

So, getting back to ADV, I personally would sellout as I do not 
think the shareprice will recover substantially until the factors 
mentioned above turnaround.

I think there are opportunities aplenty elsewhere in the world where 
stocks are not saddled with the "NZ syndrome" of mediocrity. Have 
a look at US stocks CREE and FLEXTRONICS as just two 
examples of IMHO tech stocks with tremendous potential to realise 
gains quicker than ADV.

ADV may recover from its current levels but to me $3 is a hell of a 
long way off.

I do think CAH at $1.60 is very tempting. IP must surely be licking 
their lips at the current exchange rate, they now have good 
fundamentals and once the current institutional selling finishes may 
come back into favour enough to move back to $1.90-$2 range.

Regards,
Moose

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