Forum Archive Index - September 2000

["Graeme & Jill Christie" <bayvu@ihug.co.nz>]

 That was a pretty restrained posting this time. You should have pointed out
that those events that could trigger a 'depression' have been around for
years. Some of them will never go away. I haven't spoken to Gareth Morgan
for a while but I'm surprised he's using the 'D' word. I know he hasn't got
much time for this Govt.The oil fuss always impacts on Wall St coming into
Northern Hemisphere winter, but never lasts for long. OPEC plays it like a
guitar. Makes some of these sound N.Z. co.s look  like good takeover targets
which seems to appeal to a lot of investors. Might as well sell everything
everything else offshore.  Keep up the postings. Regards.  Graeme
-----Original Message-----
From: RIL <ril99_99@yahoo.co.uk>
To: sharechat@sharechat.co.nz <sharechat@sharechat.co.nz>
Date: Tuesday, 12 September 2000 00:27
Subject: [sharechat] Deb and Gloomy Gareth


>Deb:
>
>I always find in these situations that the best course
>of action is to lie through your teeth. However,
>personally what I have done is use a man on the ground
>in Sydney who is a resident/citizen.
>
>Gareth Morgan is a treat and the only person I know
>who is more depressing than me (before I emigrated).
>However, he could be correct given certain events. But
>we all love bad news don't we. If some of the
>following events occur there could be a depression:
>
>Global equities collapse
>Recession hits States and Europe
>Orders stop coming in for NZ goods
>NZ dollar drops further
>Interest rates rise
>Receiverships increase
>All Blacks get beaten by France yet again
>Taksos Naksos gets a haircut
>NZ'ers are forced to watch prime-time re-runs of Gloss
>
>So who knows.
>Depressions are times of great opportunity of course
>but I don't think Gareth is being very helpful with
>regard to general confidence.
>
>There was an economist called Batra who used the same
>technique and a firm of brokers in Auckland (Buttle
>and Co.) who made wild predictions. If they came true
>they were geniuses. If they were proven false in time,
>everyone had forgotten anyway.
>
>The truth about economics is it is unpredictable.
>Having said that though, I feel that a massive
>shakeout is inevitable in stocks. Whether that will
>stuff the real economy I don't know.
>
>
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