Forum Archive Index - September 2000

[RIL <ril99_99@yahoo.co.uk>]

Deb:

I always find in these situations that the best course
of action is to lie through your teeth. However,
personally what I have done is use a man on the ground
in Sydney who is a resident/citizen. 

Gareth Morgan is a treat and the only person I know
who is more depressing than me (before I emigrated).
However, he could be correct given certain events. But
we all love bad news don't we. If some of the
following events occur there could be a depression:

Global equities collapse
Recession hits States and Europe
Orders stop coming in for NZ goods
NZ dollar drops further
Interest rates rise
Receiverships increase
All Blacks get beaten by France yet again
Taksos Naksos gets a haircut
NZ'ers are forced to watch prime-time re-runs of Gloss

So who knows.
Depressions are times of great opportunity of course
but I don't think Gareth is being very helpful with
regard to general confidence.

There was an economist called Batra who used the same
technique and a firm of brokers in Auckland (Buttle
and Co.) who made wild predictions. If they came true
they were geniuses. If they were proven false in time,
everyone had forgotten anyway.

The truth about economics is it is unpredictable.
Having said that though, I feel that a massive
shakeout is inevitable in stocks. Whether that will
stuff the real economy I don't know.


____________________________________________________________
Do You Yahoo!?
Get your free @yahoo.co.uk address at http://mail.yahoo.co.uk
or your free @yahoo.ie address at http://mail.yahoo.ie

----------------------------------------------------------------------------
http://www.sharechat.co.nz/          New Zealand's home for market investors
http://www.netbroker.co.nz/        Trade on Credit, Low Brokerage. Join now.
----------------------------------------------------------------------------
To remove yourself from this list, please use the form at
http://www.sharechat.co.nz/forum.shtml.