Forum Archive Index - September 2000

[Chris <cd@ak.planet.gen.nz>]

I am unintelligent on ArborGen I have to admit Warner.  This commitment 
of FFS is testimony to their vision.  How many NZ companies can you name 
that plan 25-50yrs out.  Investment in ArborGen is effectively that.  
Sounds more the German way than New Zild.  I commend FFS.

They are also doing a lot of work on reducing the chemical input.  
Tanalizing will be a forgotten practise within 5-10yrs.  European markets 
will be more receptive to our product once that is accomplished.  Carter 
Holts kiln dried Laserframe is proving a big winner in our market and I 
am sure FFS have something equivalent on the go.  I am just about to go 
to tender on my new family home that has been 2-3 yrs in the planning and 
avoiding material out-gassing is a priority.  Laserframe is on my list 
along with Lawson Cypress which relies on natural inbuilt toxicities as a 
preservative.  

Ridding timber of chemicals is also ridding it of a large cost.  Take a 
farmers fence post.  About 50% of the shelf price is in the chemical 
treatment.  Oh well, you cannot fast forward the growing cycle as we do 
with Radiata and avoid soft tissue timber.  Would not be surprised to 
hear Genesis/ArborGen up to something in this area.

Come to think of it, shall we rebrand FFS a technology stock. Credentials 
are almost right and  bound to get the price to x2 asset backing, say 
$3.38(169x2).  

Enough

Thanks for your considered input too.

Chris   




>Thanks Chris, I value your intelligent reply. I see FFS now has a PE of 8.8
>after recent results. (+ forecast eps 3-5yr growth of 20%)
>With regard to your long term investment comments on the 25 year cycle. I
>just want to point out that once established (as opposed to waiting
>26-35yrs), the cycle is continuous and that FFS has held back from havesting
>alot of forest due to Asian crisis, and Origin was only launched 2 years ago
>so to be fair, looks promising but needs time. The fact that over 50% of
>revenue is from manufactured value-added product is significant. What do you
>know about ArborGen?
>R
>Warner

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