Forum Archive Index - August 2000

[Gerry Tyler-Smith <g.tylersmith@ext.canterbury.ac.nz>]

How long have you been investing?  In my own case, I began in March 1999,
and  for the first six months of my investment career, every stock i bought
went down, eg: CEN,  POA, FLB, RBD, TEL, FLP, Fernz ...  However, I found
great comfort in reading  books on contrarian investing, (David Dreman is
great, so is current one I'm reading: 'Contrarian Investing' by Gallea &
Patalon (332.6322GAL at Canterbury Public Library, if I ever give it back).
And I continued to drip feed money over the months into other coys, like
FAP, WHS, DBG,  MON, AFFCO, SPN, FEG,  SKY City, Tower and Westpac floats.
And, after a year, from knowing nothing, and having made every mistake
possible,  I've made at least, a  twenty per cent return in the hand (this
includes dividends and IRD refund), and become completely fascinated by the
whole game ... it's like Shortland Street combined with a daily lotto
ticket.  Hang in there.

 Oh yes, I think diversification is the answer, until you reach the point
when you're feeling really confident about what and  when to buy, and when
to sell, , and have the comfort of having made a bit of money.  There's no
shame in holding 20 to 30 stocks ... harvest the ones that become
overvalued (PE over 20, except for internet techs, or recovery stocks; or
according to market gos), to give you more $$$ to buy more shares, and most
importantly, to be able to say to yourself "I made $4000 today!"

In regards to Capital Props, it would seem to be a classic contrarian
investment, which will ultimately pay handsome returns (and a nice divvie
plus imputation credits in the meantime). The property marekt has probably
hit rock bottom in terms of valuations  (Canterbury farmers are creating a
mini boom in commercial property in Christchurch, rumour has it, unless
this a beat-up by the real estate agents) , but it could be a while before
it starts heading up.  IMHO.


 >    Hi Everyone,   I have a perfect record.  A loss on every trade I've
made so far!!  I'm thinking of selling my Capital Properties shares first
thing Monday and buying CEN.  I was looking at a recovery by CEN at least
to about $2.85 within a couple of months due to my impression that it has
been oversold due to over-reaction to the news of the past week.  I can't
see Cap Props rising much in the meantime although it did make a nice gain
last  week.  Any comments?  More expert opinions than mine much
appreciated!  regards  michael 




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