Forum Archive Index - July 2000

["Warner Lamb" <cloud9@i4free.co.nz>]

Hi Geoff,Hope you enjoyed today! My choice is from my belief FFS will be
first and % gains will be best from current price.
I worked this out using FLP premium as an example (ie premium paid)+ other
factors.
My understanding is FLP took 60% of the Fletcher debt.I always work % not
$$$$.so price not so important.(apart from psychology of it)

FEG 715  NTA 411  PE 14.0    Profit99 $173m        FEG@ 900  (+185) = 25.8%
@990= 38.4%
FLB 236  NTA 216  PE 15.3    Profit99 $ 52m        FLB@ 300  (+.64) = 27.1%
@330= 39.8%
FFS  82  NTA 140  PE  7.8    Profit99 $ 67m        FFS@ 130  (+.48) = 58.8%
@143= 74.3%
If FFS is sold for $1 = 21.95%
If FFS is sold for $1.05 = 28%
I believe with 60% of debt gone,even these conservative values give healthy
returns (even for 6 months)
If FLC put out a dont sell on FFS tomorrow,do you think it would stay @82?
(investors have been prepared to pay 90 recently)and the others are near
peaks.
The company has made it clear they are to be sold BY Dec (before? most
probably)
I got FLP in Mar00 @ $1.17.....after the dont sell  $1.67.........sold
$2.50.
In two weeks 47% of FLP$$ will come back to NZer's....as I read in the Star
Sunday,most of these people are investors,ie they didnt just get the money
given to them (as in AMP or POWER co's) so they are more likely,most likely
to put it back into stock again and most likely NZSE. TENZ is a 5% recipient
of FLP payday which remember is only 2 weeks away! Their money will go
straight back into NZSE10 (FEG FLB FFS included).These factors will drive
the price in short term and after that I think investors will drive it to $1
with the timetable in mind,after FLP payday..only 4-5 months.They will be
thinking lets not get caught short like FLP.
My pick FFS first FLB second FEG third.
What are chatters thoughts on how FEG Capstone holding restrictions will
slow negotiations (with Cap revalue in mind)
Any technical input from the charts would be most appreciated.
Hands up who think FFS will sell for $1 or more (@ $1 with a 6 month est.
payout =43.9% annualised)thanks for coming.
Regards
Warner.


----------------------------------------------------------------------------
http://www.sharechat.co.nz/          New Zealand's home for market investors
To remove yourself from this list, please use the form at
http://www.sharechat.co.nz/forum.shtml.