Forum Archive Index - May 2000

[Chris <cd@ak.planet.gen.nz>]

The updated AQL deal may not be such a bad arrangement after all.  The 
AQL Annual Report quotes a valuation for Bliss(post original transaction) 
of A$0.135c per share.  Only by selling at more than 14c would improve 
AQL's equity (pg 2) be improved.  

The deal announced today is for lesser value but appears more certain.  I 
wonder if the difficultiies between Oceanis and Bliss coupled with the 
deaths due to Legionaires Disease at Melbourne Aquarium were the catylst 
for AQL to walk from the deal and treat directly with the people they 
preferred.

The showcase Melbourne Aquarium is hurting badly post LD outbreak (hey 
would you risk taking your kids to a place where a fatal disease is 
lurking) and this will of course flow through to the Bliss bottom line 
and subsequent share value.  So, finding a buyer for the AQL parcel under 
the old arrangement may have been harder than hard.  

Wikeley and co are no mugs.  They are not going to let this fall over 
twice.  By the look of today's shareprice the market enthusiasm for this 
latest deal came and went in the same breath.  I'm picking the deal to 
proceed and future direction to be announced at the same meeting.  As for 
the share value, well as we saw with Fletchers, market sentiment can 
leave you stranded when you do not deliver.  Eventually Fletchers 
delivered handsomely via FLP.  Bad analogy maybe, let's see in June.

Chris Darby
cd@pl.net   



    

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