Forum Archive Index - May 2000

["Jeff Jobs" <bigbadbear2@hotmail.com>]

Kausa, What you say regards forums, chat rooms etc is fair comment to a 
point. There are some posters who would like to talk down share prices but I 
doubt whether this is going to influence the large scale investors and 
institutions. Take a look at CAH for example, there has been a large sell 
order underlying that stock for several weeks even prior to the recent 
announcements. A so, so share but a rock solid company, however they just 
are not cutting it with return on capital or equity for that matter so 
investors figure there are better opportunities around and if that is 
offshore well so be it. There is no conspiracy out there to talk down share 
values. I have been posting on other boards that this is a time to be very 
cautious or in other words do nothing until after the 17th. Rising interest 
rates are very, very negative for share markets whatever the country. I am 
sure that after the FED does it's thing the US markets will begin to settle 
down again and that will be good for the NZSE and ASX. This is all just part 
of the cycle. By the way I have a theory that if the FED only raises .25 
instead of .50 there will be a nasty correction because investors will 
figure the FED is behind the play regards inflation. So as perverse as it 
sounds I am hoping for a 50 point raise. I have already said in other posts 
that the tech share boom is over for the time being and in fact is going to 
turn into an ugly debacle on the NAS (it's now in motion today) but I still 
read posts in NZ of people hyping the NZ tech shares. Well buy them at your 
peril. The real problem for the NZ market is that unfortunately we just 
ain't where it's at for the moment and with a market that is 60% overseas 
owned when those investors want out well there is only one way the NZSE 
index is going.
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