Forum Archive Index - May 2000

[Phil Eriksen <phil@acepay.co.nz>]

Richard Hooper wrote:
 
> Enough of paitriotic flag waving stuff ..... why are investors afraid of
> Eric and downgrading BCH,  if u  look at Eric's performance longterm as a
> competitor I can't think of any achievements. ADV  was in a niche market
> ,the rest are tech not proven .BCH is a proven company and growing globally.
> (see sharetalk site for McEwen's recommendation buy..... @ $9.75
> :))))))))))       )

I think the fear of Eric Watson has to do with the recent nature of the
BCH stock price.  Baycorp have a very real, and successful business. 
The management have a track record of actually improving the business,
and it does stand out in the dreary NZ market.  However, a speck of gold
in amongst a pile of rubbish is sure to attract the miners, and BCH sure
has.  While the stock deserves a high valuation, I think it got a little
too high due to "momentum".  And as we're finally seeing with the
Nasdaq, the sort of investor that buys a share just because its going
up, will also sell it just because its going down.

The one thing Eric Watson is good at is hype and "future prospects". 
When it comes to actually delivering, well, I couldn't possibly
comment.  The point tho, is that when you look at the sector Baycorp is
in I think a fair amount of the "momentum" money will be chucked at Eric
and the boys rather than at Baycorp - especially when many Baycorp
holders can cash out with a substantial gain and hopefully get a new
ride with Eric.  I'm not sure investors are really afraid "of Eric" as
such, I think it's more a case of people who jumped onto a booming
Baycorp "for the ride" are exactly the sort of people who confuse PR
with profit, and see better prospects in the new rather than the old
(the new, of course, allows drooling about expected results rather than
mourning actual ones.)

Bottom line - I think Baycorp is still a while away from "settling
down", probably at a lower level than it is at today.  Over time tho,
results are what matter, and while competition is a threat, Baycorp has
always had competition.  Having a listed competitor just makes it easier
to compare the performance of BCH with the performance of Eric's mob,
and if the results stack up for BCH, how can that hurt long term?

Cheers,
Phil

----------------------------------------------------------------------------
http://www.sharechat.co.nz/          New Zealand's home for market investors
To remove yourself from this list, please us the form at
http://www.sharechat.co.nz/forum.html.