Forum Archive Index - May 2000

[Richard Scott <richard@tkf.att.ne.jp>]

Warner wrote:

<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>In a recent link from Sharechat I found some
statistics on 2000 GDP growth from CS First Boston The Economist. Forecasts
for
this years GDP 5.8% and the CPI at a low 1.3%. This would seem to be ideal
conditions for our companies and for our sharemarket but generally everyone is
expecting another increase in interest rates.. I think next week (some are
saying .5%) why do we keep putting on the brakes?Did the oil rise change
forecasts that much or do we want to keep on borrowing too much. This compares
with USA forecasts of 4.5% GDP and 3.2% CPI.I hope we don't see another
rise so
soon for our Sharemarket hasn't started to recover yet....maybe a
little.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>PS I hope I haven't made any grammer mistakes- I
see the Brought/Bought and There/Their police are back wasting my internet
time.


Recent Economist articles / leaders on the future of Europe and impliedly,
it's markets, were very positive. The potential for that region to do well
relatively sooner than others being the main thesis. I guess then it comes
down to whether money in fixed interest securities or in term deposits
will, risk for return, appeal more than being part of something with far
greater but unguaranteed potential. The perenial question??!!

Don't you think it's rather telling though that during the massive
liberalization of your markets (labour included) in the last decade, the
Economist was very upbeat about the prospects for New Zealand but that the
magazine now never seems to mention New Zealand along the same lines as,
say, it has Europe recently??  It appears that the market in NZ is quite
cheap. Fairly sizeable companies are offering extremely attractive yields
(ex. Skycity), but the rush by foreigners who already own the lion's share
of listed stcoks to buy yet more is still to materialize. I hope that value
investing will prevail, for New Zealand's sake. The cost of capital in the
debt markets looks set to rise globally and so a prolonged negative
sentiment toward New Zealand stocks will only serve to erode company
profitability. A viscious cycle of sorts with it's own destructive
momentum. If there is going to be any buying in the market, is it going to
be soon, or will seemingly better prospects elsewhere prove strong a pull
for the world's capital? If you can answer that one with any degree of
certainty, then be certain to tell me won't you.

Warner, don't worry if you can't spell mate. (It's "grammar" by the way,
not "grammer"). It's not important at all. As long as we know what you
wanted to write that's all that matters.

Ril's mate.




----------------------------------------------------------------------------
http://www.sharechat.co.nz/          New Zealand's home for market investors
To remove yourself from this list, please us the form at
http://www.sharechat.co.nz/forum.html.