Forum Archive Index - May 2000

[Chris Darby <darby@ak.planet.gen.nz>]

Derek,
I realise that you are ball park on these figures but are you not using 
actuals for BCH and 2001F for FRO.  Here's some data from ABN-AMRO (who 
are not that keen on BCH).

BCH 2001F

Revenue     71.6m
Net Profit  22.3m

EPS         28.0c
Div(cps)    25.5c 

Yes it is an interesting exercise but I don't think the two companies are 
comparable.  BCH has a solid earnings history, is x5/6 times the cap. of 
FRO, respected brand name, largest non-government database in NZ and 
strong AU growth.

BCH has recognised that future growth is in the international market. Not 
just credit reporting and debt collection in NZ and AU as FRO are 
focussing on but the licencing of their unique technology in Asian 
markets.  Also to watch is their investment in the sceure internet 
communication company, 128i Ltd.

BCH are an Information Technology company in the purest meaning of the 
words.  The last 4-6 months has seen some keen institutions coming on to 
the register and Charles Bidwell sell out.  They are now cash rich for a 
calculated expansion into software licencing, targeting central banks and 
trading banks in Asia. 

As I have said before.  PR machinations are not the style of BCH.  Their 
brand is already strong as is investor sentiment.
 
Regards,
Chris       

          

>Correction - I used the half year operating revenue for
>BCH and not the full year in my previous FRO post.
>
>For completion I'll have another go.
>
>RMG will have 475 million shares on issue
>on a forecast operating revenue (June next year)of 72m NZD.
>
>BCH has about 80m shares on an operating revenue of about $54m
>EPS 23.4 c
>
>Using the Operating revenue/earnings ratio from Baycorp as
>an approximation. (a _big_ approximation!)
>
>The forecast EPS for RMG would be 72 m * 23.4c/54m * 80m/475m = 5 cents
>
>Therefore a share price of 50 cents in a years time seems
>reasonable and a share price now of 40 cents seems reasonable.
>
>Derek

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