Forum Archive Index - April 2000

["Richard Hooper" <hoop@ihug.co.nz>]

I was in yesterday. Tried to do some rational thinking and came up with these thoughts

1... Looking from an American propective (haven't seen a bear for 13 years) NZ blue clips have been crashing for the last 5 months CEN down 35% CAH down 30% AIA down 25%etc etc etc No headline news hype no panic selling .All of a sudden the yanks caught sight of a bear and panic set in drops of 10% makes headlines ,where is the rationale ?

2...... Conditions for a major crash takes about 60 years to materalise .small corrections one way or the other of various degrees happen periodically during these 60 years . I do think however that Wall St bulls have had their run (8years is an incredible bull run ) if this is the case US investors/instutions might start looking outside their home mkts to increase their capital gain .This could be to the Pacific/Asian benefit

3.......taking 1 and 2 into account, yesterday seemed like a good time to average down and buy in CAH, FFS,AIA,CEN ,  fundamentals are now very important.

I did not buy any tech stocks ,I have some AQL & ITC, but low asset bases keeps me away from these shares at present, I will put these two  in my draw and forget about them for now .I might get a pleasant surprise with these some years down the track.At the moment I am concentrating hard on the neglected stocks to which there are many.

Happy hunting   

----- Original Message -----

From: Steve Moxham

To: sharechat@sharechat.co.nz

Sent: Tuesday, April 18, 2000 9:55 AM

Subject: [sharechat] Risk and Reward

There must be some people out there sitting on some 20-30% gains overnight! Who was brave enough to step into the market yesterday? Care to share?