Forum Archive Index - April 2000

[ril <ril99_99@yahoo.co.uk>]

When the crash comes there are a few things that you should have already
done:

1.      Paid off all consumer and credit card debt.
2.      Sold your house if it has a mortgage and perhaps even if it     doesn't.
3.      Reduced your personal spending levels.
4.      Be right out of the market.

People assume that because the underlying economies are strong that this
will support the stockmarket. That proposition is patently and
historically false. When the vast amounts of wealth that have
accumulated on paper are wiped out overnight consumer spending stops in
its tracks. Recession comes fast and hard and leverage accelerates the
process.

The market prices are unprecedented in history and it is clear the
so-called new economy companies will never match the expectations no
matter how well they perform in terms of profit.

There are also indications that the internet will also be nothing like
the hopes for it have been. In fact it is trending towards being merely
a global billing, mail and pornography medium that is making very little
money (profit) for the participants.

The so-called old economy stocks are also way overpriced. Remember, if
consumer spending slows right down then old-economy P/E ratios are
suddenly pushed right up.

Unfortunately, the mania has reached such a fever pitch that the outcome
will be so bad that it will be the most significant economic event of
the last 300 years.

The detrious will be catastophic. NZ will be hit with regard to the
stockmarket less badly that most because the NZ market is all but dead.
However, there will be a large negative effect. The real economy will be
badly affected. 

It will be a fascinating study as all panics are.

So, if you are not a professional and you are still in the market then
you are a fool!

Most of the comments on this tightly regulated stock chat site are  from
cherries who weren't active in the last crash and have little
comprehension of what one is like.

No doubt I'll cop some flak from these people for my comments but it is
to the more intelligent people I am speaking.

So the choice is yours. Either batten down the hatches, day trade
holding no positions overnight or you will pay the price.

Best of luck.

PS. Have purposely included no humour in this email because I know it is
objectionable to the site owner and most of the readers.

PPS The last people you should rely on for a view on what is going to
happen are brokers, analysts and the media who all have their own
dictated agendas.

----------------------------------------------------------------------------
http://www.sharechat.co.nz/          New Zealand's home for market investors
To remove yourself from this list, please us the form at
http://www.sharechat.co.nz/forum.html.