Forum Archive Index - April 2000

[Phil Williams <phil@hyperactive.co.nz>]

on 4/7/00 12:06 PM, jesse at johne777@hotmail.com wrote:

> Simon Botherway, investment manager at Spicers Portfolio Management,
> said the bubble had burst and the fallout would be ongoing.
> 
> Oh bother Simon. You sound like one of those unfortunate analysts who
> have watched the Nasdaq climb 80% in 1998 and 100% in 1999, and
> completely missed the boat. Unlike Warren Buffet who did likewise and
> saw his shareholders portfolio lose 50% last year, he apologised for the
> poor performance. How brave to predict a burst bubble now. I dont think
> so Tim.
> 
> 
> "There is no new valuation paradigm. The value of a stock is the present
> value of future cashflow and there isn't any other way to value a
> stock in the long run."
> 
>> Guess even analysts hate change huh?


It must be the influence of Hugh and the value brigade, but I thought this
article was a decent summary - and it's true, this year will see a marked
shift from the blue sky waluations of 99 in my opinion.

The bit about sorting the "e-wheat fromt the e-chaff" is very pertinent.

Good companies with strong plans in the IT area will continue to explode.
Companies with little value to add to the online market will not... maybe we
saw this indicator with BDO..?

IMHO, the lesson for tech investors to take from the trads is - Know Your
Share.
Homework, homework, and more homework will pay the big dividends in the
MEDIUM term, (I still wouldn't call IT a long-term investment).
All that is no news to most investors here, of course, but I've learnt it
the hard way once or twice.
Frank sets the glowing standard - Mr Fernandez, our thanks again for showing
a depth of evaluation rarely seen in public discussion forums.

Cheers

Phil


----------------------------------------------------------------------------
http://www.sharechat.co.nz/          New Zealand's home for market investors
To remove yourself from this list, please us the form at
http://www.sharechat.co.nz/forum.html.