Forum Archive Index - March 2000

[Derek Watt <dkw@paradise.net.nz>]

For those who haven't read it there's a very interesting
artical linked to on the frontpage of sharechat.

http://www.fortune.com/fortune/2000/04/03/two.html

As I've read before, most stocks in the Nasdaq are
30% down on their 52 week high. The index is being 
held up by the big stocks like Intel, Cisco and Oracle.

This pattern seems similar (on a much much smaller scale)
to whats happening on the NZ exchange
with Advantage and Baycorp posting new highs while
the smaller Techs are drifting down.

There is also a comment relevant to BDO -
(from Greenwich money manager James O'Shaughnessy)

"Less surprisingly, 85% of the stocks are
worthless--especially
transaction-based e-tailers and
online brokers, most of which, he
predicts, will be out of business in
five years."

Therefore there appears to be considerable risks
being an online retailer, and therefore any negative news
is likely to be reflected strongly in the share price.

Cheers,
Derek


P.S. I hope you're right Hugh about the end of the financial
year.







At 05:39 PM 3/31/00 +1200, you wrote:
>about 3% each of the last 2 days on the NASDAQ?
>plus the drift downward in NZ & Australian techs.
>is this the bubble bursting or something else?
>
>IMHO its something else.
>I note a comment that its the end of the quarter/financial
>year and that institutions don't want to be caught showing
>speculative techs on their balance sheets that get published,
>also we have the Microsoft vs Government thing and the 
>inexorable but slow ratchetting up of interest rates.
>
>In that case there should start to be a return to techs next week,
>with the passing of 31 March.
>
>To the extent that there is a bursting of the tech bubble I think it
>will a progressive matter as techs run out of development
>phase PR rhubarb and have to start reporting firstly decent sales,
>secondly decent profits and thirdly decent yields and probably
>at least 50% won't be able to measure up.
>
>What was the source of the statement that John O'Hara is not going to 
>be CEO Spectrum? I recall it was all very conditional on due process
>on a software deal going through Ok and we seem to have been 
>strung along on the cash issue &.
>IMHO I think Spectrum is dead in the water if they can't get J O'H
>for his leadership and technical knowledge qualities.
>Disclosure: I'm a Spectrum shareholder.
>
>cheers,
>hugh
>
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-----------------------------------
Derek Watt
http://members.tripod.com/DKWatt/
-----------------------------------




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